Yevheniia
Horiunova
Independent
Expert
Ukraine
Ukraine obtained candidate status from the European Union in June 2022. The European Council agreed to commence negotiations on Ukraine's membership in November 2023. The outcome of this process remains uncertain. For instance, some European leaders may argue that either Ukraine is not adequately prepared or that the EU, grappling with internal issues, is not ready to expand. Given these uncertainties, Ukraine should prepare for various scenarios and challenges that may arise during the negotiation process.
Ukraine's path to the European Union began in the early 1990s. However, for an extended period, Brussels primarily perceived Ukraine through the prism of Russia, considering it as a country situated between its eastern neighbours and Russia. As a result, the European Union ratified the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Ukraine after four years. Despite this, Kyiv maintained a strong pro-European stance, which displeased Russia and its President, V. Putin.
The Kremlin resorted to blackmail related to gas and attempted to seize Tuzla Island in the Kerch Strait. Despite Ukraine's appeals to the international community and the guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum, satisfactory results were not achieved. Kyiv was compelled to resolve this challenging issue independently. While the Ukrainian government managed to retain control of the island, this incident prompted a shift in its integration focus from European to Eurasian.
The introduction in 2004 of the European Union's new "European Neighbourhood Policy" initiative proved to be a disappointment for Ukrainians seeking membership rather than just neighborhood relations. The victory of the pro-Western candidate V. Yushchenko in the presidential elections in 2004 revived the European integration process. Ukraine began preparing an Association Agreement with the EU, which did not include full membership but provided a chance for further rapprochement.
The launch of the European Union's "Eastern Partnership" initiative in 2008 can be viewed as a specific response to Russian aggression against Georgia. The EU chose to employ "soft power" to establish a circle of friendly states near its borders. These states also have varying attitudes toward Eurointegration. Nevertheless, Brussels' cautious policy has resulted in dissatisfaction in Moscow, which perceives it as an encroachment on its zone of influence.
Until 2013, the Association Agreement was prepared and initialed. The victory of V. Yanukovich in the presidential elections in 2010 did not change Ukraine's pro-European integration trajectory. Moreover, Yanukovich's policies resembled those of L. Kuchma, where the path toward European integration was forsaken in favor of a shift towards Moscow. In the fall of 2013, at the "Eastern Partnership" summit, Ukraine refrained from signing the Association Agreement due to economic pressure exerted by Russia.
The actions of the Ukrainian government triggered mass protests in support of the Eurointegration course, known as Euromaidan, which later evolved into the anti-government Dignity Revolution. Ukrainians took to the streets, advocating for the protection of the rights of the people, property, and businesses. "Nobody will beat our children" became the main slogan on the Euromaidan. The Ukrainian Euromaidan and Dignity Revolution were not only about the country's foreign policy choices but also reflected an evaluation of the future of Ukrainians and their values.
The victory of the Dignity Revolution symbolized the triumph of the European path for Ukraine, but the cost was exceedingly high. Some protesters sacrificed their lives (the "Heavenly Hundred"), and the country suffered territorial losses. The Russian occupation of Crimea was a response to Ukraine's pursuit of EU integration. Russian politicians had issued warnings on the sidelines and carried out their threats in 2014, resulting in the Kremlin's annexation of the Ukrainian peninsula. Following the conflict in Donbass, obstacles emerged, intensifying the ongoing conflict and impeding Kiev's journey toward European and Euroatlantic integration.
The trajectory of Ukraine towards the EU and NATO did not change after the presidential elections in 2019. This became the reason for a full-scale Russian invasion on February 24, 2022. This invasion represents the latest attempt by the Kremlin to conquer Ukraine and deprive it of a European future.
In February 2022, the Ukrainian government took a risky step by applying for EU membership while the Russian army was stationed near Kyiv. Brussels faced a challenging dilemma: supporting Ukraine would demonstrate to Moscow that the EU is ready to provide significant assistance to Kyiv and disregard the geopolitical claims of the Kremlin. However, such a stance carried significant risks. Failing to support Ukraine would be a betrayal of the values that form the foundation of European integration.
After prolonged discussions, the European Council, during its March 2022 summit allowed the European Commission to initiate the monitoring process for Ukraine. In June, the European Council granted Ukraine candidate status for membership, contingent upon the completion of judicial reforms, anti-corruption efforts, and addressing oligarchic influences. In the autumn of 2023, the European Council approves the start of negotiations on Ukraine's membership. However, this will pose another test for both Kyiv and Brussels, having definitively overcome all geopolitical and economic hurdles.
Ukraine pays a very high price for the opportunity to be a free country and independently make its foreign policy choice, which is currently European integration.