Andrzej
Fałkowski
Ph.D.
in Economics, Lt. Gen. (Ret.), Former Deputy Chief of General Staff of the
Polish Armed Forces (DCHoD), Member of Defence Reform Advisory Board for MoD
Ukraine from 2018
Poland
There are as many supporters of reforming the armed forces during war in Ukraine as there are opponents. The former claim that without reforms the war will not be won, while the latter claim that reforms are impossible while it lasts. It is to be hoped that the first option will prevail.
The situation in Ukraine, its aspirations towards NATO and EU and in addition general security issues on the eastern borders of NATO and EU are extremely important for the entire globe. Especially now, when doubts have arisen whether the world, surprised by the new war in the Middle East, will not shift its attention to this region. All this is made worse by the lack of US will to financially support Ukraine next year and the general impatience and tiredness of this war in the world.
After the illegal annexation of Crimea and the occupation of the eastern part of Ukraine in 2014, Ukraine decided to start in 2015, with the help of six NATO allies, intense reform its military more transparently. Ukraine MoD established the DRAB - Defence Reform Advisory Board. This board of strategic advisors consists of high-level representatives (mainly retired three-star generals) of the defence sector of six allied countries such as the US, the UK, Poland, Canada, Germany and Lithuania.
DRAB, when it was still regularly present in Ukraine, monitored and observed the course of reforms. It had knowledge of what was happening, what was planned and how the plans were implemented. In fact, it even had an influence on the pace and shape of their implementation. One of the Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, wrote in his letter to other ministers that assistance, both individual and through the DRAB, helped introduce significant changes in the field of defence policy, strategic communication, resource planning and management and many others, and also contributed to the "Ukrainian miracle" of successfully repelling Russian aggression.
Despite economic difficulties and demographic pressure, during the ongoing war, Ukraine is making progress in modernizing its Armed Forces, which is extremely difficult, but also necessary. It is important to maintain the continuity of the defence reform process and ensure transparency in the use of various resources provided by other countries. Despite this, both in the past and currently, Ukraine is also plagued by many scandals related to the misuse of funds. Sometimes it is intrusive corruption, sometimes it is fraud. Ukraine must deal with this on its own. This situation must be corrected quite quickly, because the country is in a state of war and without repairing the internal situation it will fall into stagnation, and the Euro-Atlantic aspirations enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution may be seriously delayed or thwarted. Countries helping Ukraine must be convinced that their aid is not the subject of various shady interests, including those on the fringes of war.
Although Ukraine already ranks high in terms of military strength (according to Global FirePower 2023 - globalfirepower.com - Ukraine ranks 15th in the world out of 145 countries), this does not mean that further reforms, even in times of war, are not necessary. This will be equally important after the war, if only to prevent Russia from trying to commit aggression again.
Support for Ukraine comes to the fore and should be continued and increased. This includes providing weapons, equipment and training, as well as financial assistance. Ukraine's support in the fight against Russia's aggression is crucial to the final resolution of the conflict.
It is necessary to continue reforms of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which is not free from challenges. This will not be easy, as the current reform is characterized by a lack of continuity, as everyone responsible for defence started the reforms from scratch. Equally important will be reforms throughout the country and the need to fight corruption, which seems to be a key aspect not only in the defence sector.
This will also be important in Ukraine's negotiations with the EU. It should be remembered that Ukraine's membership in the EU cannot be seen as a substitute for joining NATO. It is true that the European Union has made some commitments more quickly, which may give the impression that negotiations will be easier than if it had joined NATO. Nothing could be further from the truth. Additionally, the EU does not guarantee military security, although some of its countries would have such ambitions.
The decisions that may soon be made in Washington during the NATO summit will have an impact on the shape of the international security order. Merely inviting Ukraine to NATO would have a huge deterrent effect.
However, the path to achieving this goal is difficult and requires further reforms. Why are they so important, especially in times of war?
Reforming Ukraine's defence system is crucial for several reasons.
Such reforms help modernize and improve defence forces, making them more effective and able to respond to evolving Russian threats. Improved training, equipment and tactics contribute to the military's effectiveness by increasing its ability to counter aggression. We often forget that the Russians also do not sleep and adapt to changing conditions, perfecting not only tactics, but also quickly modernizing and rebuilding their forces. The reforms enable the Ukrainian military to adapt to changing security challenges. As warfare changes, a flexible and adaptive defence system becomes essential to effectively address new threats.
Reforms are often associated with the professionalization of military personnel, emphasizing training and discipline, because the human factor is the most important. Here the situation is more complicated. It's not just about the demographic crisis in Ukraine. Hundreds of thousands of civilians were drafted into arms. They received weapons, often for the first time, and they were Western-made, with which even experienced professional Ukrainian soldiers had no previous experience.
In this case, the reformed defence system must take into account improved international cooperation and support. Allies and partners are willing to provide assistance, both in terms of resources and expertise, to a military undergoing wartime modernization and reform, but the Ukrainian side must know how to use such assistance.
Further reforms are needed to build resilience to complex and evolving hybrid threats. A modernized defence system is usually better prepared to meet these multi-faceted challenges.
Changes in times of war must lead to improved command and control structures, ensuring better decision-making processes and speed of response.
The reformed Ukrainian defence system must place greater emphasis on intelligence collection and analysis. Accurate and timely intelligence is critical to making informed decisions and effectively responding to threats.
An effective STRATCOM is also necessary. Reforms must include improvements to provide accurate information to both the Ukrainian population and the international community, and even Russians.
Modifications are necessary to improve logistical and medical capabilities. As the war has shown, this is crucial to maintaining military operations during a prolonged conflict and saving countless lives not only among the military but also among the civilian population.
Transformations must also focus on creating strategic reserves and effective mobilization plans so as not to wake up with empty warehouses and large shortages in reserves, not only in personnel. Thanks to this, the military will be able to quickly respond to escalating threats and, if necessary, strengthen key areas.
Reforms of the Ukrainian defence system must inevitably include supporting cooperation between military and civilian institutions. This integration is important for a comprehensive approach to the country's defence, involving not only the armed forces, but the entire nation, including other sectors of society, in the war effort.
There are many other examples of potential further reforms.
It is worth mentioning that post-war reforms will also be of key importance for reconstruction and stabilization, for which Ukraine must now prepare. It will be important to prepare for demilitarization and disarmament efforts, demining and even derussification, reconstruction of destroyed infrastructure, reintegration of displaced people and many other directions of reforms in which the armed forces will be involved. It may be the subject of a separate study.
In summary, further reforms of Ukraine's defence system are necessary during (but also after) war to ensure that the Ukrainian defence system is well prepared, adaptable and able to meet constantly changing challenges. This will not only increase the country's defence capabilities, but will also contribute to stability and security in the region.
The examples presented indicate the multidimensional nature of defence reforms, covering not only hard military capabilities, but also aspects such as intelligence, logistics and cooperation with various sectors of society. To address the complex and dynamic nature of the war with Russia, a comprehensive approach to defence reforms is necessary.
Only a strong and well-reformed defence system deters the aggressor. The perception that a nation has a capable and well-prepared military may discourage it from further involvement in warfare.