Vira Konstantynova
Former Foreign Policy Adviser to the Chairman of the
Parliament of Ukraine (2019-2021)
Kyiv, Ukraine
Ukraine's integration story is unique in its essence. Not a single European country conducted integration in wartime. The genocidal war launched by Russia against Ukraine nullified any arguments of sceptics, both in Ukraine and in the West. According to the polls, the public support for joining the EU and NATO remains at the highest level.
Ukraine’s path towards the West before 2014 was a twist. The Revolution of Dignity marked a new period in both Ukraine’s modern history and its convergence with the West. The Association Agreement with DCFTA, the visa-free regime, created the preconditions for deepening cooperation. The life-changing decision of the Parliament of Ukraine in 2019, which fixed the course towards the EU and NATO in the Constitution, recorded the civilizational choice of the Ukrainians.
Ukraine has shown progress in implementing recommendations despite the war. When the Ukrainian leadership submitted the EU membership application on the fifth day of Russia's full-scale invasion (February 28, 2022), there was a considerable degree of pragmatism regarding the realistic outcomes of this action. With the granting of EU candidate status to Ukraine in June 2022, a strong political will from both sides to finish this marathon became obvious.
The Ukrainian government introduced an innovative approach to legislation assessment, conducting a 6-month self-screening even before the official screening of the European Commission. Such an approach justified itself, significantly accelerating the necessary steps towards reforms.
The European track became efficient due to the fundamental consensus between all stakeholders involved while being an indicator of good groundwork with the EU bureaucracy. The European Council's historic decision at the summit in December 2023 to open pre-accession talks with Ukraine advanced the preparatory work for the next stage. The first quarter of 2024 will be an intensive period for both sides.
The interdependence with the West is already unprecedented. The West's financial support ensures the country’s economic resilience during wartime. By joining the EU funding programs, Ukraine received behind-the-scenes access. Last decade, the EU has invested its efforts in ensuring mutual energy security. The energy systems have been synchronized. Further reforms will strengthen Ukraine’s capabilities to counter Russian aggression.
The country is committed to achieving membership in both the EU and NATO. To meet these key foreign policy goals, the Ukrainian team has enlisted the support of many European governments by signing relevant declarations.
The war became a stress test for Ukraine’s partnerships both with Western and non-Western countries. For the next decades, security will define relations between Ukraine and the West. Integration into NATO is conditioned by other considerations. Since Ukraine’s application for accelerated accession in September 2022, Kyiv's proactive integration approach ensured the NATO standards in the defence and security sector.
The West invested a lot in Ukraine’s survival, but still not enough to end the war with Ukraine’s victory. A counteroffensive without the required provision against the larger army is a knowingly losing option. The Ukrainian Defence Forces were able to gain some strategic advantages, including the expulsion of the Russian fleet from the western part of the Black Sea and the renewal of the BS Grain Initiative.
Entering the third year of war for Ukraine is important to keep the gains of the 2023 campaign. Innovative technological solutions with a sufficient amount of weapons are still required. The Western strategy evolved to invest in Ukraine’s defence autonomy and self-reliance, which could be achieved with joint military production. Meanwhile, negotiations on security guarantees before NATO membership are in active mode.
The 2024 year is predicted to be more turbulent for world politics due to election campaigns in Europe and the U.S. Russia will hold a fake election just to reconfirm Putin’s reign. NATO Washington summit in July 2024 will define the further configurations.
NATO membership remains the only solution. The political invitation could become an asymmetric response to Russia, a last chance to avoid such war and genocide in the future. Invitation would be an additional impulse for Ukrainians to win this war.
Putin’s Russia will never change its attitude towards Ukraine’s statehood. The combined air attacks during the 2023/24 winter season reminded there is no option for negotiations with Putin. The main goal is to restore territorial integrity while ensuring the complete defeat of Russia on the battlefield, which is the only precondition for lasting peace in Europe. The concept of Russia’s defeat should be instrumentalized, otherwise, NATO will come face-to-face with Russia.