karttatausta

Juha Vauhkonen: Ukraine’s long and winding road









Juha Vauhkonen
Rear Admiral (ret.), Former Director of Finnish Defence Intelligence
Finnish Defence Forces
Finland

Already in 2014, Ukraine made it clear to the Western community, to the whole world, that it wants to integrate into Europe. But it took one war to make this wish heard and possibly even understood in Brussels. A brutal war of aggression launched by Russia against its neighbour on 24 February 2022. One of the objectives of this attack, among many, was to stop Ukraine's pro-Western approach and, in particular, its integration with the West. They are a threat to it. But the attack did not dissuade Ukrainians from that dream, however distant it may seem. On the fourth day after the attack, the Ukrainian President formally signed the application for membership of the European Union. This was finally understood in Brussels. Things then moved forward at a rapid pace. Ukraine (and Moldova) became candidates for EU membership in June 2022, and in November this year the Commission finally proposed to open accession negotiations with the countries.

Ukraine's aspirations for closer integration with the West are essentially very similar to those of Finland. As the wall dividing Europe came down, Finland very quickly saw the window of opportunity and opened it and applied for EU membership. It wanted to be officially part of the Western democracies, economically, to a large extent for security policy reasons, and ideologically, to which it had claimed to belong and to which it wanted to belong throughout the post-war period.

The same reasons have driven Ukraine towards the European family. First of all, it is economic. EU membership will open the doors to the world's largest single market and is expected to fuel economic growth. Diversification of trade relations will also help Ukrainians resist Russian influence. Secondly, the pursuit of EU membership is also expected to strengthen the country's independence. It is also hoped that it will bring security against Russia. The same increase in security is also at stake in Ukraine's quest for NATO membership. Unfortunately, however, that objective must now be seen as a possibility only after the guns have fallen silent, as the war continues. Ultimately, it is also about the desire to belong to the European political and ideological community. Russia's atrocities against Ukraine and Ukrainians in Ukraine have only strengthened that view. Ukrainians do not want to belong to Russia's ideological reference group and the world it shapes. Ukrainians want to emphasize the country's historical roots as part of the European community. Joining the EU is not a turning point, but a natural continuation of a centuries-old trajectory in which a power-hungry, brutal and ruthless Russia wanted to intervene.

It is very important that the European Union has made such a strong promise to Ukraine, a promise of a brighter future. It will not be an easy journey and the road will be very rocky. However, Ukraine will soon have to start the tough economic reforms that the EU is demanding, and the challenge is to do it in a time of war. While Ukraine has already shown impressive political will and ability to promote the reforms proposed by the Commission in the midst of war, it has one fundamental challenge on its hands, to tackle widespread corruption in different sectors and levels of society. For continued Western support, Ukraine must prove that it is committed to Western values, including the fight against corruption. In comparisons made before the Russian invasion, Ukraine was the second most corrupt country in Europe, just behind Russia. In Transparency International's 2022 comparison, the country was ranked 116th. Ukraine's dreams of EU membership are tied to progress in eradicating corruption. This is necessary because without tackling corruption, Ukraine's westernization will be jeopardized, and without western integration, Ukraine's independence will be threatened.

In any case, the strong signal sent by the EU Commission to Ukraine makes sense on many levels. Ukraine has already jeopardized its existence because of its reputation as a liberal democracy; it was also, as noted earlier, a key reason for Russia's attack on Ukraine. A decent democracy, which is more in favor of Western Europe than Russia, undermines the kind of illiberal and authoritarian state that Russia and its satellite states represent and wish to preserve. Ukraine's Revolution of Dignity in 2014 and its stubborn defence of its territory after Russia's invasion in 2022 show how seriously Ukraine is committed to becoming a Western democracy. The Euro-Atlantic alliance has recognized this ambition through military and humanitarian assistance, international diplomatic engagement and the granting of EU candidate status.

As a Finn, it is easy to identify with the Ukrainians' dream of EU membership. For the same reasons, we too sought our own integration with the West. For us, achieving membership required a persistent and patient struggle on the diplomatic stage. Nor did we experience a direct military threat during the NATO membership negotiations. The starting point for Ukraine is quite different. It is fighting a bloody battle for its existence under the harsh conditions of war. That is why it is important for the Ukrainians to feel and sense that the West is on their side as a united front.