Yana Prymachenko
Senior Researcher
Institute of History of Ukraine, National Academy of Science of Ukraine
Ukraine
yana.prima@gmail.com
In 2011, the Ukrainian scientist, writer, and diplomat Yuriy Shcherbak published a novel, The Time of Christ's Death: The Mirages of 2077. It is a political thriller, dystopian science fiction novel about the future, where superpowers fight to control Ukraine. The book was the first part of the trilogy. The author published two accounts in the next three years – The Time of Big Game. Phantoms of 2079 and The Time of the Tyrant. Insight 2084. The trilogy got positive reviews from critics and Ukrainian intellectuals but, unfortunately, went almost unnoticed by the broad Ukrainian and international public.
The novel describes the world of 2077, shortly after the Third World War. Nuclear explosions destroyed a number of major cities. Nation states are in decline. Most of them either collapsed or joined unions. Russia disintegrated into small states that were absorbed by the Black Horde. Ukraine has remained outside the alliances. However, many superpowers consider it a valuable partner because Ukraine imports grain and weapons and has valuable mineral deposits. The oligarchs rule the country by electing the president. The criminalization and corruption caused deep social inequality in Ukraine.
The novel's plot unfolds on the eve of the Fourth World War. The climate has changed significantly, provoking the food crisis. Neighboring countries are preparing to raid Ukraine to seize food. The Black Horde seeks to assimilate the Slavs to oppose other alliances and achieve world domination. The Horde has numerous agents among Ukraine's authorities. It uses the dogma of the Christ's Death sect to spread its influence in Ukraine. According to this belief, Christ died and did not rise again. Therefore, people have lost their connection with God and are free from traditional Christian morality. The protagonist is Ukrainian intelligence officer Ihor Hayduk. He finds himself in a big game where the Black Horde is trying to occupy Ukraine and use it as a bridgehead for further advancement to the West.
The Time of Christ's Death is the darkest-ever novel in the Ukrainian literature. However, the author gives a roadmap for solving the global crises. The world revived Christian morality in the finale, and Ukraine became the cornerstone of the new international security system. The symbolic message of the novel is clear. If humankind wants to preserve the Earth for the future and have world peace, it should return to moral values and reject the concept of Realpolitik.
On September 02, 2014, Yuriy Shcherbak presented the
trilogy's final part in Kyiv. The author noticed, he hesitated whether to do it
because "World War III has started in Ukraine."
Of course, political analysts wouldn't agree with Shcherbak's assessment. Even now, most Western experts are not ready to call a spade a spade, preferring to consider the Russian all-out invasion of Ukraine as the second Cold War. Many analysts and politicians believe that avoiding military confrontation with Russia will help prevent World War III.
Unfortunately, the world order created after the Second World War no longer exists. The United Nations couldn't support the balance of power anymore. The collapse of colonial empires always entails World Wars, as it did in 1914 and 1939. The only difference in the Russian case is that it is delayed.
Political analysts never seriously considered the colonial nature of Russia / the Soviet Union. Classical European imperialism used to be predominantly ‘economically-oriented’, while Russian imperialism is ‘politically-oriented’, where prevails non-economic reasons such as 'glory or prestige of the nation or religious-ideological motives.' According to Oto Peralías and Romero Ávila, the style of imperialism depends on the imperial ruler's domestic conditions. The presence of such elements as ideology, religions, centralism, militarism, economic statism, interventionism, determines the 'politically-oriented' style. The decisive factor of Russian imperial expansion is the defense of the imperial domains against possible threats from rival powers. That's why the economic sanctions are not enough to stop the Russian war in Ukraine. ‘Politically-oriented’ imperialism is less sensitive to economic issues.
However, the main problem for the West is the lack of understanding of what Russia considers its domain. According to Dmitriy Medvedev, Putin's aspiration is "to build an open Eurasia – from Lisbon to Vladivostok." In other words, Russia wants to rule the Eurasia continent, which makes a big war in Europe a matter of time.
Putin has already started to test the water. The Russian missiles in the air space of Poland and Romania were not accidental. This political technology is known as 'salami tactics' - slice a small piece and see the reaction. Putin did in 2008 when Russia attacked Georgia and in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea. The mild Western response encouraged Russia to continue.
Only a balance of powers can stop the further unfolding of World War III. This is terrible news for the West because confrontation with Russia and its allies is inevitable. The delay in military response only increases the number of Russia's potential allies since his success will encourage other dictators.
The other problem is less evident but still urgent. Humankind achieved its limits of growth. It means we face multiple challenges like climate change, food crises, and ecological calamities soon. These problems require global efforts. The new challenges require a new paradigm of international politics, with a place for moral standards, values, and mutual responsibility for the future. Sounds idealistic, but what are the other options?