Matti Posio
Finnish Journalist and Editor
Lännen Media
Finland
Reverse mathematics is eye-opening. We keep statistics about how much the EU and each country have supported Ukraine, or not. It’s a lot harder to calculate how much Ukraine has supported everyone else.
We say phrases like ‘Ukraine is fighting for all of us.’
What if Germany would not have supported Ukraine by its 20 billion, or the EU institutions pledged 85 billion, and what if the much lesser contributors France, Spain and Italy would not have chipped in their euros, too? How much would it then cost, to pay for Europe’s safety?
It’s appalling that Sweden has given more than France. It’s crazy that Finland has contributed to Ukraine’s defense more than Italy and Spain combined. It’s hard to fathom that in the U.S. Congress support for Ukraine can be tied to the funding of a non-related political issue.
Politicians shake the hand or even hug president Zelensky for any photo op. Even the most lenient of supporters realize what courage, and the actual hard labor of Europe’s security look like.
The Ukrainians will finish the job
It’s about our safety. Finland’s safety contributes to
Europe’s and the West’s safety. Ukraine’s defense contributes to everyone’s safety
because the aggressor is a dangerous and blood-thirsty one.
Our leaders have often pledged to keep supporting Ukraine ‘as long as needed’ or ‘until the end’. Sometimes it’s ‘until victory’. And the victory, of course, ‘will have to be defined by Ukrainians’.
Many agree that ‘Russia simply cannot win this war’ because of the devastating blow it would render to the ‘rules-based international order’.
All is well said, and it means nothing without the action to back up words.
So far, Ukraine has been fighting the fight and suffering the hits, with its sky closed for civil aviation during almost two years. We have hoped for a miracle on the battlefield, sometimes ignoring the realism and the famous quote from a WWII general: ‘Amateurs talk strategy, professionals talk logistics.’
One of the most memorable comments was made in October 2023 by the UK Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak: ‘If we give president Zelensky the tools, the Ukrainians will finish the job – Slava Ukraini!’ In other words: our weapons, their dirty work. It’s not a bad bargain, even if you only care about money.
By the enemy, a human life or a lost limb are not considered worth anything.
The Ukrainian army commander, Valerii Zaluzhny, reminded about the high price of war in his year-end press conference. He called it one of his main mistakes: ‘I thought the number of losses we caused to the enemy, even a year ago, that they could stop it. Such number of losses would stop any country, but now I understand, not the Russian Federation.’
How much would Russia’s victory cost?
According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy,
the military, financial and humanitarian aid given by governments to Ukraine
amounts to far beyond 100 billion euros. The biggest supporters have been the
EU, the United States and Germany.
Alternative to supporting Ukraine is not doing nothing. Russia would not suddenly become harmless, even if Ukraine was left alone and allowed to fall.
We all benefit from Ukraine’s support to the West. It takes the shape of manpower, dedication to fight in the frontlines, lost lives and limbs, shattered families, 10 million displaced people, and children who grow up in exile.
What if we had to face Russia’s aggression directly as EU, NATO, Finland? What if Putin was able to take his war to Moldova, and to the borders of the closest NATO countries?
It’s not far-fetched. There already is a hybrid attack from Russia and its proxy Belarus towards the borders of Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Finland.
Without Ukraine, we could not support Ukraine
In Russian military journals they have published articles
that describe the formula of a ‘future military conflict’. It includes eight
stages beginning with hybrid harassment and upgrading to a full-scale invasion
using armed forces. There’s plenty of nastiness and cover up along the way.
Preparing for all of this means costs. Ukraine is not increasing these costs, but it’s shouldering some of the burden.
Our NATO membership, bravery in facing Russia’s border harassment, and the political and economic stands we take to support Ukraine, none of those would be possible without Ukrainians.
If Ukraine did not respond to Russia’s war since 2014 and stand up to Putin’s invasion plans since 2022, for us supporting Ukraine militarily would be unthinkable.
If not for Ukraine, we would still count on appeasing Putin’s regime with non-allied status and deepening economic cooperation.
Instead, Finland has become a fierce critic of Russia. Finland has provided 2,2 billion euros of aid including 21 packages of military material. The Russian troops and equipment from behind our border are lambasted in places like Bahmut, and Avdiivka.
Costs of inaction and the benefits of action
Supporting Ukraine is not giving money away. It’s an
investment to our secure lives and to the weakening of our aggressive common
enemy. Questions don’t stop there.
What is the cost of one human life? A hundred lives? What about a hundred thousand? Your own life?
What is the gain in having a democratic, a culturally and politically healthy, economically open Ukraine in the heart of Europe? Of course, Ukraine’s rebuilding will cost the EU. As a member state Ukraine can start contributing later, and the other alternative, staying out alone, would be pricelessly horrible.
How much would it cost to have only ‘Russian world’ where Ukraine is now?
In 2023, a Slovakia-based institute, Globsec, published a report called ‘Ukraine: Costs of Inaction & Benefits of Action’. Their main finding was that the countries of Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, and Romania benefited substantially more from their support to Ukrainians than not supporting.
Of the foreseeable future scenarios, both a ‘frozen conflict’ and ‘Ukraine losing’ would become far more costly than ramping up support for Ukraine until Russia loses its war.
Mr Posio has covered Russia, Ukraine, and other international and political news since the 1990’s.