Gunda Reire: The political climate of transatlantic security

Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine has brought misery and suffering to millions of people, trampled on the rules-based international order and seriously challenged the European security architecture. All illusions about the democratization of Russia and engaging with it are now abandoned. Long-standing negative dependencies are being corrected and clear future visions are being formulated. Russia had only one chance to pull the first trigger in the opportunistic hopes of catching the Ukrainians and NATO by surprise. Not only has it failed its original plan, but it has also ensured that we are more capable and willing to counter Russia than ever before.

Now, that most Europeans have gone through their personal and collective Zeitenwende, we must continue to collectively strengthen our ability and resolve to deter and defend. Since Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, NATO has been an engaged and effective actor, not merely communicating but, through its actions, guaranteeing that every inch of NATO territory is defended. Russia’s brutal use of force against civilians has shown that the tripwire concept is no longer sufficient in the context of the defence of Allies. Timely reinforcements to the Eastern flank, an increased US military presence in Europe, combined with a future-looking Strategic Concept and ambitious commitments made at the Madrid Summit are the hallmarks of a true renaissance of the North-Atlantic Treaty and the Transatlantic Bond. The recent US announcement to fulfil its commitment to implement a persistent rotational presence in the Baltic states showcases the rejuvenation of collective defence as the reason why NATO exists. The enhanced multi-domain Allied presence in the Baltic states – currently being implemented according to decisions made in Madrid – is an unambiguous response to Russia and a considerable boost to our abilities to enforce the concept of forward defence. All Allies have clearly demonstrated their long-term and firm commitment to the security of our region. 

The decision made by Finland and Sweden to apply for NATO membership is another game changer for the Baltic regional security. Their accession will turn the Baltic sea into a de facto NATO lake and strengthen the security of approaches to the North Atlantic, while their significant capabilities and expertise will provide a significant boost to the deterrence and defence of the whole Alliance as well as further enhancing the positive and rapidly developing synergy between NATO and the EU. It brings a new impulse to the Nordic and Baltic cooperation and unity. All countries are dedicated democracies and supporters of an open market economy, and they stand for responsible multilateralism. All are united in their worldview. All are the vanguard for building a whole-of-society approach to the national and collective resilience and defence, that goes even beyond a whole-of-government approach. Both NATO and the EU will benefit from the impulse of even stronger Nordic-Baltic cooperation. The most significant aspect could turn out to be the elimination of grey zones – both geographic and cognitive. Clarity brings long term security for all. 

Of course, Russia will not disappear. In terms of transatlantic security, it should be recalled that NATO presence in the Baltic region is a direct response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine in 2014.  Despite its catastrophic failings in Ukraine, Russia still poses a significant conventional and nuclear threat to its neighbours. Therefore, it is the right time not to fall into the next traps of illusions and self-deception. It has already been heard that Russia will collapse internally, that a change in leadership will change Russia, or that the Western sanctions will solve the whole problem and change the destiny of Russia and Russian people. In fact, the citizens of a particular country have this responsibility and task placed squarely on their shoulders. The tectonic change is not coming from outside; it must be home-grown.

It is crucial to keep in mind that our ability to deliberate and plan peacefully is bought by Ukrainian blood on a daily basis. Our duty is to support Ukraine militarily, politically, financially, diplomatically – without caveats or reservations, to help it endure and eventually prevail against the Russian aggressor. Supporting Ukraine is also a core national interest of not only the Baltic States, but the whole transatlantic community. Through sheer resilience and strength, Ukraine has proved to everyone that its future lies within the democratic European family.

Now we are much better prepared to successfully face serious challenges posed by Russia. As the result, the Baltic states, the Baltic sea region and the transatlantic bond are safer and stronger than ever before. Therefore, the significance of transatlantic security and NATO membership will remain at the very highest level in Latvia’s foreign and security policy.