Heljä Ossa
Researcher
National Defence University
Finland
When the European Commission led by Ursula von der Leyen began its work in 2019, it labelled itself as the geopolitical Commission that would strengthen Europe’s role in the world. Most countries have very little leverage in European politics, let alone in world politics. They simply cannot manage alone in the current geopolitical environment, which is why collective European action is needed on all political levels. The EU is the most natural forum for this.
Geopolitics and power competition have returned to the international stage – though it can be argued that they never left. The end of the Cold War was seen as the end of rivalry and power politics, but this soon proved to be a false interpretation. Europe saw war and conflict in the Balkans already in the 1990s and in Georgia in 2008. The last remains of the illusion of lasting peace were shattered in 2014 when Russia annexed Crimea and waged war in Eastern Ukraine. At the same time, the rivalry between China and the US intensified, accelerating the American foreign policy shift from Europe to Asia-Pacific. The war in Ukraine has only intensified the need to realize a more strategically acting European Union.
Our time is characterized by growing geopolitical rivalries all over the world, from the Arctic to Africa, from Europe to the Indo-Pacific. We can see this in increasing transactionalism, in hybrid and information warfare and in the shift from economic interdependencies to dependencies. The EU can no longer remain in the margins, but it must assume more responsibilities even in the fields that have not traditionally been part of its task list. If Europe does not want to become a pawn in geopolitical competition, it must become a geopolitical actor itself.
The crucial question is whether the EU has the capacity to be a serious geopolitical actor and to exercise hard power in addition to its more traditional soft power capabilities. To tackle this, the EU presented its new Strategic Compass in 2022. The new strategy document was written as a response to major geopolitical shifts in Europe’s neighbourhood and to allow the Union to strengthen its security and defence policy and take greater responsibility of Europe’s security. The Union recognises the risks of being outpaced by competitors and wants to protect better its own interests and values. As Josep Borrell has put it, the EU needs to finally get serious about its strategic interests and act upon them.
The EU needs to be able to defend its values, interests and people from external pressure, to be able to stand resilient and capable in the face of growing challenges and threats. To do this, the EU needs to reduce asymmetric dependencies and become more autonomous – not just in security and defence sector but throughout the political spectrum. This is what the Strategic Compass aims to achieve. Europe cannot become a stage where great powers – China and the US – project their power and compete against each other. It is in the EU’s interest to truly learn the language of power and be able to act strongly and coherently in world politics. This does not mean that Europe needs to abandon its fundamental values, such as democracy, rule of law and human rights. Quite the opposite. Only by being strong, determined and resilient, can the EU defend its values and promote peace and stability. As stated in the Strategic Compass, “where the EU is not active and effective in promoting its interests, others fill the space”.
The war in Ukraine has showed that the EU can act decisively, swiftly and unanimously. Still, the success in responding to Russia’s war-waging must not make the EU complacent. The Union cannot only act on ad hoc basis, but it needs to have an efficient, sustainable and well-funded ability to act whenever needed. There are, however, several obstacles to overcome before we can talk about a truly geopolitical EU. A fundamental problem is that the Union is still seen as merely a peace project and soft power actor. In a world that is more rivalrous, the EU is expected to take steps towards a more militarised role, which does not come naturally to it. Moreover, NATO is undeniably the first choice for many European countries when it comes to security and defence. The cooperation between NATO and the EU has greatly improved in the past years, but there is still a great deal of work to be done to clarify the division of labour among the two organisations to avoid duplication and to streamline the use of resources.
The EU is not famous for its speed but that does not mean it is incapable of change. Just look at how the Union was 10 or 20 years ago, and you see how much it has changed. The EU has developed a common security and defence policy practically from scratch, it has assumed new tasks and responsibilities and is ambitious of becoming a serious global actor. The Strategic Compass and other strategy documents pave the way but only if they are implemented properly and adapted according to the constantly changing security environment.