Žaneta
Ozoliņa
Professor
University
of Latvia
Latvia
In 2024 the Baltic States celebrate the historical moment – twenty years of being members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Upon joining the alliance, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania sought security guarantees outlined in paragraph 5 of the Washington Treaty. From the outset of their membership, the Baltic States consistently emphasized the potential threats posed by Russia, in terms of its ambitions and intentions. The Balts constantly encouraged their partners to invest in the strengthening of NATO’s eastern border.
A decade passed before Western partners acknowledged that the threat was not merely a matter of perception but implementation of Russia’s foreign and security policy aims, as outlined in numerous documents and official statements. Events such as the occupation of Crimea, the military conflict in Eastern Ukraine in 2014, and the subsequent brutal war against Ukraine in 2022 significantly altered the security landscape in the Baltics and NATO’s eastern flank. This in turn, prompted an increase in NATO presence.
Following accession to the alliance in 2004, NATO’s presence in the Baltics was substantiated by assuming responsibility for air-policing of the Baltic States on a rotational basis. NATO’s commitment to the Baltic States was manifested in investments in infrastructure, regular training, exercises, and joint projects. Participation in international operations, including Iraq, Afghanistan, and Kosovo with other Allies, formed a substantial part of Estonia's, Latvia's, and Lithuania's security and defence policies.
To bolster NATO's capacity to respond to emerging threats, three centers of excellence were established in the Baltic States. Estonia hosts the NATO Cooperative Cyber Security Center of Excellence, Lithuania launched the NATO Energy Security Center of Excellence, and Latvia manages the NATO Strategic Communication Center of Excellence. These structures have become vital sources of knowledge and expertise, particularly in the aftermath of Russia's war against Ukraine, which included elements of cyber, energy, information, and hybrid threats.
In response to Russia's interference in Ukraine's domestic affairs and provocations of violent conflict in Eastern Ukraine, NATO made decisive decisions during the Wales and Warsaw summits. This resulted in the formation of Enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) military forces stationed in the Baltic States. Estonia became a host nation for France and Iceland, with the UK as a framework Albania, Czech nation, while Latvia's list of contributing nations included, Iceland, Italy, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Spain, with Canada as a framework nation. The composition of eFP is based on collaboration with Belgium, Czech, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United States, with Germany acting as the framework nation.
Since 2014, NATO has consistently responded to security threats on its eastern border. The Madrid Summit approved a decision envisioning a greater number of rapidly deployable high-readiness units. Allies agreed to establish four additional multinational divisions in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia, increasing the total number to eight. This effectively doubled the Alliance's presence from the Baltic Sea in the north to the Black Sea in the south, fortifying NATO's eastern border. Decisions made during the Madrid Summit to strengthen alliance defence capabilities were supplemented at the Vilnius Summit in 2023, announcing the development of new regional defence plans and an agreement on providing the necessary resources for their implementation when and if needed.
NATO’s presence in the Baltic Sea region received a significant boost with the incorporation of Finland and Sweden. Both countries, as NATO members will be a substantial contribution to both the Baltic Sea region and transatlantic security, given their impressive military capabilities in terms of equipment, technology, defence industry, and international engagement.
In the twenty years since the Baltic States became NATO member states, their defence capabilities have been consistently developed and strengthened in close cooperation with their allies. The growth of defence capabilities is based on an annual budget increase, allowing investments in personnel, weaponry, and infrastructure. Allies are committed to reaching defence expenditure targets of up to 2% of GDP. Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are among the countries not only to have reached this threshold but have even more ambitious plans in the next few years. Overall they have become contributing nations to the defence of the transatlantic community.