Imants Lieģis
Senior Research Fellow
Latvian Institute of International Affairs
Latvia
In the lead up to Latvia joining NATO in 2004, there were sceptics in the country who considered that our being part of the world’s strongest military Alliance will remain an unfulfilled dream. As Latvia’s NATO Ambassador at the time, I tried to convince them that this was a reality within our reach. With the unprecedented turmoil in international relations that has evolved over the last years as a result of, amongst other things, Russia’s imperialistic aggression in Ukraine and elsewhere, the reality of NATO membership for the past two decades is that it is more demanding today than it has been in the past.
Latvia joined NATO 13 years after regaining freedom and with half a century of Soviet occupation as a legacy. Post-Soviet troops left Latvia in 1994, with the final military installation – a radar base – being blown up one year later. The compromise for this agreement with Russia was that “retired” troops and their families were allowed to continue living in Latvia. Some 80,000 in total. Latvia’s border with Russia was finally agreed after we joined NATO, with the country also ceding part of its pre-occupation eastern territory to Russia. Astute political leadership and determination guided Latvia’s path to NATO. This was based on a strong desire to “return to Europe” and to engage the United States, Europe and other allies in militarily guaranteeing our security.
Persuading existing NATO members that we had something to contribute to the Alliance and that we would not be “free-riders”, was also important. It was never a given that events would turn out in our favour. A leading US diplomat in around 2000 suggested to me at one time that Estonia could join the EU and Lithuania NATO. “Leaving Latvia to Russia?” was my rhetorical response. In the event, President Putin’s attempts to have a veto over NATO enlargement was defeated by allies uniting to invite seven new members in 2002, with their accession taking place two years later.
Twenty years ago, NATO was preoccupied with out of area operations. “Out of area or out of business”, was the mantra. Terrorism was the major threat to global security following the attacks on the United States on 11th September 2001. The following day, for the first and only time in NATO’s history, article 5 of the Washington Treaty was activated. Latvia contributed with troops to operations in both Iraq and Afghanistan, suffering loss of life along with our allies. Just before the twentieth anniversary of 9/11, in August 2021, NATO troops withdrew from Afghanistan. By then the main threat to the Alliance was clearly identified as coming from Russia. Hence NATO’s focus since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine in 2014 has moved from the war on terror, to the defence of Allied territory, in particular the defence of those allies on the front line with Russia.
The nightmare being experienced by the people of Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale war on 24th February 2022 has created instability to the European and global security order. Existing international and rule-based norms have been trampled on and rejected by Russia. Further instability emerged on 7th October 2023 with the brutal terrorist attack by Hamas against Israel. A wider Middle East war still remains a possibility, compounded by attacks on shipping in the Red Sea. A potential conflict in the Asia- Pacific region as a result of China’s increasing assertiveness cannot be ruled out.
NATO is not a global policeman, but the Alliance is undeniably affected by the global instability that confronts us today. From a Latvian perspective, the response taken together with the Alliance has met our immediate security concerns about collective defence. Today, we focus on NATO’s regional military plans being fulfilled. This is being done both through or own and allies’ efforts. Latvia has a budget already at around 3% this year enabling procurements covering air, sea and territorial defence needs. A large new training base is being constructed. We are increasing the number of our armed forces. Meanwhile, the Canadian led NATO enhanced Forward Presence of allied troops and infrastructure in Latvia is enlarging to brigade level. With Finland and Sweden now in NATO, strategic depth has been given to our regional defence. Sweden will send some 600 troops to Latvia.
The most immediate challenge is to ensure Ukraine’s victory against Russia’s brutal attempt to wipe the country off the map of Europe. Ammunition, equipment, drones and other needs of Ukraine must be supplied urgently to stop the revisionist imperialistic ambitions of Russia, which are a threat to NATO.
On our 20th anniversary in NATO, Latvia will continue to be in the forefront in supporting Ukraine and contributing to the crucial collective defence of the world’s greatest military Alliance.