Jim Townsend
Adjunct Senior Fellow
Center for a New American Security (CNAS)
Washington D.C., USA
US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy (2009-2017).
All eyes will be on Washington DC on July 9th 2024 as the now 32 member NATO alliance will come together to celebrate NATO’s 75th anniversary. As alliances go, this 75th anniversary is remarkable in that rarely do alliances stay together, if not enlarge, once the threat that pulled them together dissipates. As the Cold War ended and NATO decided to remain together despite the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, it wasn’t a sure thing that NATO would remain around for its 75th anniversary. But it survived and is on track to celebrate a 100th anniversary as well.
Like the 50th anniversary, the summit will take place during a time of conflict in Europe. The 50th anniversary, also celebrated in Washington, witnessed war in the Balkans as NATO launched an air campaign to stop ethnic cleansing in Kosovo. However, the conflict for the 75th anniversary takes place on a much larger scale both in terms of violence and geopolitical impact. Russian President Putin’s second invasion of Ukraine has sparked the worst fighting in Europe since World War II. While not a combatant like in Kosovo, NATO and the allies themselves have rushed to the support of Ukraine. Ukraine is not in NATO but allies agree that Ukraine has the right to defend its sovereignty and the rules-based international order developed by the West after World War II needs to be protected. Towards that end, billions in assistance both military and economic have poured into Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine makes this summit, while a celebration, a very somber one. A successful summit will send a message to many audiences. The most important audience is Ukraine, and the message must be one of strong, long-term support by NATO for the people of Ukraine, no matter how dark the day may be. The second audience is President Putin, who must see in the summit a unified NATO both now and into the future. Any assumption Putin has made that he should be patient and wait for the West to succumb to fatigue must be dispelled and replaced with the understanding that support for Ukraine by the West is steadfast no matter the political rhetoric sometimes heard coming from NATO capitals. Another audience is the American people, who should see what a critical role NATO plays in their national security and how American security rests in the success of Ukraine’s fight against Russia. And finally, Beijing has an audience of one for the summit. If President Xi concludes from a failed summit that the West is in decline and the US is overstretched, he may take risks in the Indo-Pacific based on a misreading of US resolve. There is much riding on the success of this summit and the right message reaching a multitude of audiences who will be watching closely.
This summit will occur just days before the Republican national convention, which will anoint the Republican challenger to run against Joe Biden for President. At this writing, that challenger will likely be former President Donald Trump. The former President has been quite vocal about his disregard for NATO, about some of the allies in it, and has questioned whether NATO is still relevant. Former Trump aides have said that he seriously considered withdrawing the US from NATO during his term in office. The summit in Washington will make an attractive target for Trump as he stirs up his core supporters against “globalists” and especially against allies who he sees as taking advantage of the US. He will demand more loudly that European allies “pay up” what he wrongly assumes are dues owed to NATO. The alliance will need to have a strong public presence and media dominance to overshadow US political rhetoric coming from the hotly contested presidential race. This is not a US summit…it is a NATO summit, showcasing the Alliance, not US presidential candidates. NATO needs to strive to keep the summit above US politics and focused instead on the seriousness of the climate of war in Europe and the threat to the alliance, including the US, of an emboldened and aggressive Vladimir Putin.
While NATO may have its own ideas for what the agenda will be, the issue of Ukraine membership in NATO will attract the most attention. The alliance has agonized over this issue beginning in 2008 with the contentious Bucharest summit where the most the alliance could agree on was stating that Georgia and Ukraine will be in NATO, but could not agree to a timetable. NATO and allied nations have worked closely with Ukraine since then to help it overcome obstacles to membership, such as corruption, and to modernize its military forces. As Ukraine progressed towards NATO and EU membership and the idea of membership grew more popular among the Ukrainian people, Putin became concerned that Russia would lose influence in Kiev. His two invasions of Ukraine were meant to fix that problem. The urgency of protecting Ukraine under the NATO flag grew; but giving Ukraine membership before they were ready and while they were at war with Russia made it hard to reach consensus on forward movement towards membership. As the battleground in Ukraine shifts in the coming months, what to do about membership and extending alliance protection over Ukraine will become acute. NATO will need to have a credible plan about NATO membership at the Washington summit that gives confidence to Ukraine that membership is at hand, while warning Moscow that NATO is not walking away.
For Americans watching the summit, especially the political class, there will be expectations that NATO will announce significant increases in defense spending by NATO nations. Burdensharing has always been the top complaint from the US for many years and from all political parties and administrations. Donald Trump raised the US complaint to a new level, fixing the perception in the public mind that Allies were taking advantage of the US, even going so far as saying the US should not protect allies who do not “pay up” and that he did not care what may happen to those allies who are in arrears. Obviously ignorant about the detail of the burdensharing issue, he nonetheless continues to spread the false impression that Allies are free-riders. The data says something else in terms of the number of Allies reaching the 2% of GDP defense spending goal this year and expectations for the years to come. An aggressive President Putin can be thanked for the increases in defense spending, not Donald Trump, but however funding is being put into military coffers, the summit needs to highlight that Allies will buy the equipment and troop readiness to fulfill what NATO planners say they need to fill out the new regional defense plans. Ensuring the defense plans are not hollow due to Allies not contributing their fair share of well-equipped forces must be the top priority for NATO and a message received loud and clear by Americans during the summit.
Finally, after a torturous year of waiting, the summit will welcome Sweden into NATO. This is no small matter. With Sweden joining Finland in NATO, the Nordic/Baltic area - NATO’s northern flank - is solidly in the Alliance. A geopolitical and military disaster for Putin, this is but one example of the negative consequences resulting from his brutal invasion of Ukraine. Sweden will bring a top class military to NATO, as well as skilled diplomats, civil servants and military officials to help NATO deal with the challenges that are piling up in the North Atlantic Council. Swedish submarines will patrol the Baltic, its Gripen fighters will patrol the skies and its land forces will take their place along the ramparts on the Baltic frontier. Equally important are Swedish defense industries that will churn out weaponry to help refill European arsenals.
Thanks to President Putin, the Russian military planners now have a problem. The critical Russian Northern fleet area in the Kola Peninsula, home to Russia’s SLBM submarines, surface combatants and strategic air forces now has two new NATO neighbors. The famous Russian bastion will come under pressure as the two formerly non-aligned nations that in the past Russian planners could assume would stay out of any regional conflict are no longer sitting on the sidelines, but now have completed a defensive NATO wall against Russian aggression in the High North.
NATO’s 75th anniversary will be like no other anniversary. Not since World War II have the nations of Europe faced the possibility of a broader war breaking out in Europe. The United States faces a challenge as well: will the US commitment to NATO and to European defense remain solid and fulfill the promises made since 1949 to stand with its allies in a time of war? Or will the US commitment prove to be hollow, undermined by fractious political division and isolationism at home? The answer will come in November when US voters will be faced with two competing visions of America’s future. Only one of those visions will include a strong transatlantic alliance, and that vision was forcefully outlined in President Biden’s State of the Union address in March. It is that vision that will give NATO a 100th anniversary to celebrate:
“In January 1941, Franklin Roosevelt came to this chamber to speak to the nation. And he said, ‘I address you at a moment unprecedented in the history of the Union’. Hitler was on the march. War was raging in Europe. President Roosevelt’s purpose was to wake up Congress and alert the American people that this was no ordinary time. Freedom and democracy were under assault in the world.
Tonight, I come to the same chamber to address the nation. Now it’s we who face an unprecedented moment in the history of the Union. And, yes, my purpose tonight is to wake up the Congress and alert the American people that this is no ordinary moment either. Not since President Lincoln and the Civil War have freedom and democracy been under assault at home as they are today. What makes our moment rare is that freedom and democracy are under attack at — both at home and overseas at the very same time.
Overseas, Putin of Russia is on the march, invading Ukraine and sowing chaos throughout Europe and beyond. If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you: He will not…America is a founding member of NATO, the military alliance of democratic nations created after World War Two prevent — to prevent war and keep the peace. And today, we’ve made NATO stronger than ever…If the United States walks away, it will put Ukraine at risk. Europe is at risk. The free world will be at risk, emboldening others to do what they wish to do us harm. My message to President Putin, who I’ve known for a long time, is simple: We will not walk away. We will not bow down. I will not bow down.”