Hanna Wass
Adjunct Professor in Political Science,Vice-Dean
Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki
Finland
She is a PI of the research project “Dynamic democratic support for Finnish defense policy (NATOpoll)” (2023–2025), funded by the Kone Foundation.
hanna.wass@helsinki.fi
S.M. Amadae
Adjunct Professor in Political Science,
Director of the “Global Politics and Communication” MA program
Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Helsinki
Finland
She is a co-PI of the NATOpoll project.
sm.amadae@helsinki.fi
Finland’s security and defense policy environment has changed significantly over the past two years. After Russia began its large-scale attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2022, it quickly became clear that it was necessary to re-evaluate our security and defense policy choices. Finns interpreted NATO membership as providing Finland with a necessary and viable military deterrent against Russia. After an intense chain of events and a period of waiting for ratification by Turkey and Hungary, Finland was accepted as a member of the defense alliance on April 4, 2023.
Whereas the 2023 Finnish parliamentary elections were strongly focused on national economic policy, the presidential elections held at the beginning of this year placed the role of NATO-Finland within the reach of citizens’ democratic control. Untypically to Finnish political culture in defense and security issues, the presidential candidates openly debated the opportunities and obligations that Finland’s NATO membership entail. Of the two candidates in the second round, Alexander Stubb campaigned for a strong NATO, more NATO in Finland, and more Finland in NATO, including participation in its nuclear deterrence. Pekka Haavisto, in turn, represented a diplomacy-orientated standpoint by emphasizing a multipolar defense collaboration and perceiving nuclear weapons as a mechanism for crisis escalation rather than a peace guarantee.
In the rapidly changing geopolitical and economic environment, new national security and defense issues have appeared. Continuation of military and financial support for Ukraine, deepening lines of division between the Global South and the Global North, the strained relations between China and the United States as well as the accelerating conflict in the Middle East require active engagement. Tensions in world politics strengthen the paradigm of comprehensive security, incorporating a broad conceptualization of security from military to climate, pandemic, terrorism, resource scarcity, and migration. It also expands the spectrum of actors involved in crisis management to include, for example, national central banks, which played a significant role in handling the Covid-19 pandemic.
The contemporary political context activates all sorts of security needs among citizens. Citizens’ expectations change dynamically as a response to security and defense policy decisions as well as to the frames through which politics are interpreted. To strengthen legitimacy and ensure democratic input in decision-making on security and defense issues, it is essential to take into account the adapting character of public opinion.
In our “Dynamic Support for Security and Defense Policy (NATOpoll)” research project, we interview the same respondents every six months. The findings show that Finns’ support for NATO remains high: 82 percent were in favor of membership in our latest survey round, conducted in November 2023 (n=2,038). In line with the newly appointed President Stubb, citizens support a strong NATO, consider Finland’s active role in the defense alliance important, and are willing to invest in meeting the expectations that come with membership.
While the majority still view nuclear weapons critically as part of NATO membership, there has been a notable shift of attitudes. In a measurement in June, only 27 percent were willing to allow the transportation of nuclear weapons through Finland, but this has increased to 38 percent in five months. A majority of the voters for the leading government party, the National Coalition, are already in favor. Similarly, one-fifth are willing to have nuclear weapons deployed on Finnish territory, which is almost double the proportion reported in summer 2023. This can be seen as a clear indication of dynamically developing public opinion within the general security environment.
Alongside NATO commitments, citizens support increasing cooperation in EU-level defense as well as maintaining a strong national defense. Certain themes divide citizens especially along the left-right dimension, such as the demilitarization of Åland, anti-personnel landmines, and nuclear weapons. However, disagreement appears to be a question of pluralism and dispersion of views instead of sharp polarization with clearly opposing opinions. Overall, there is a notable consensus on Finland’s broadly construed security interests. The same applies to the policy-makers, as all central actors formulating Finland’s security and foreign policy currently represent the same party.
Consensus is a considerable strength for a small nation especially in a turbulent international security environment. At the same time, it increases the risks of certain political frameworks becoming overemphasized while important contradictory perspectives are neglected. A largely shared understanding of the status quo may lead to narrow scenarios and a lack of vision. Listening to opposing voices and constantly monitoring dynamic citizen perspectives will ensure that the security decisions made now will remain sustainable in the future.