Raimundas Karoblis
EU ambassador to Tajikistan, Former Minister of
Defence of Lithuania
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has dramatically altered the security landscape in Europe. With Putin’s imperial ambitions on full display, a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia is no longer unthinkable. This calls for a renewed focus on bolstering the Alliance’s preparedness for collective defence.
As a starting point, one should recognise that one of the causes of the ongoing war in Ukraine is Western naïveté, complacency, and political divisions vis-a-vis Putin’s Russia. The invasion of Georgia in 2008, the annexation of Crimea, and the aggression in Donbas should have served as wake-up calls. Instead, even today, after two years of Russia's endless war crimes and atrocities, there are voices in the West calling for a show of restraint in providing military support to Ukraine (because it could be “too provocative”). For the Kremlin, this is a clear sign of weakness, which will only invite further escalation.
NATO’s military preparedness for collective defence is key for curtailing Moscow’s revisionist ambitions. Since 2014, the Alliance has taken important steps to bolster its Eastern flank. NATO has revised its regional defence plans and increased its presence in the Baltic states and Poland by forward deploying allied battle groups and strengthening the Baltic Air Policing mission. The Alliance also established the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force (VJTF) to rapidly reinforce the region in case of attack. These adjustments involved a limited number of the allied forces yet they signalled NATO’s determination to defend every ally from day one.
The war in Ukraine has provided a reality check for NATO by exposing substantial shortfalls in the Allied readiness for a major conflict. In particular, the hardware and ammunition stocks in the NATO countries turned out to be woefully inadequate, leaving Ukraine comprehensively outgunned on the battlefield. Furthermore, the Western defence industry was unable to keep up with the demands of a high-intensity war. After two years of war, Russia keeps outproducing the collective West in the critical areas of artillery munitions, missiles, and equipment despite having a much smaller economy than that of the combined NATO.
Another element of concern for the Alliance should be the new technics and technologies that increasingly dominate in this war. With the help of China and others, Russia is actively integrating unmanned systems and artificial intelligence into their forces, with a transformative impact on the battlefield. These developments may reduce or negate the technological advantages that Western militaries held over Russia.
None of this suggests that Putin is winning. Far from it. Ukraine’s heroic resistance has denied the Kremlin victory in its blitzkrieg attempt of February 2022. Over the past two years, Russia's military has suffered colossal losses in terms of men and equipment, was forced to retreat from swathes of occupied Ukrainian territory, and the remnants of its Black Sea fleet were pushed out from Crimea. Finally, the recent accession by Finland and Sweden to NATO is another symbol of Putin’s strategic failure in starting the war.
Looking ahead, the collective West should intensify its work on both tracks: assisting Ukraine’s military resistance and preparing itself for collective defence. Putin's geopolitical folly should not be underestimated. Ever an opportunist, he will be looking to exploit the West's weaknesses and divisions. Therefore, NATO’s readiness for a full-scale war is also the most effective way to prevent it from happening.
In this context, the action plan for the NATO allies seems pretty straightforward.
- Increase defence spending. Resources are critical for developing defensive capabilities. Unfortunately, there are allies still spending below NATO's minimal 2 percent target.
- Enlarge the pool of forces capable of high-intensity warfare. The war in Ukraine has shown that numbers matter, particularly when the frontline extends over thousands of kilometers.
- Address short-notice aggression scenarios. NATO should invest in the forward defence of the most vulnerable regions rather than rely on arriving reinforcements. Indeed, another lesson from Ukraine is that holding prepared defensive lines is considerably less costly than recapturing territory.
- Strengthen the defence industry. In the new security environment, revamping the European defence industry is the highest priority task. This is a natural area for the European Union to take the lead.
- Invest in air defence. With Russia increasingly reliant on missiles and drones in Ukraine and continuously ramping up its production capacity, bolstering NATO’s air defence capabilities should be another immediate priority.
With Putin’s Russia on the revisionist path, the likelihood of a direct military confrontation with NATO has increased, particularly in the mid-term perspective. Avoiding this worst-case scenario calls for a considerable boost of military assistance to Ukraine and a clear focus on ramping up NATO's collective defence capabilities.