Europe’s relationship with the United States is entering a new era. Growing uncertainty over security commitments, trade tensions and technological dependencies is forcing Europe to reconsider its position in a changing international order. The latest issue of Baltic Rim Economies explores what the shifting transatlantic relationship means for European security, economic cooperation and the future of the international system.
The relationship between Europe and the United States is undergoing a profound transformation. As security commitments become less predictable, trade tensions intensify and geopolitical competition reshapes international cooperation, Europe faces growing pressure to reassess its relationship with its longstanding transatlantic partner.
From European security and strategic autonomy to trade, technological dependencies and climate policy, the latest issue of Baltic Rim Economies brings together more than 40 expert contributions exploring the changing landscape of transatlantic cooperation and EU-USA relationship. A recurring question throughout the publication is how Europe can strengthen its ability to act independently while maintaining cooperation with the United States.
A partnership under pressure
The challenges facing transatlantic relations extend beyond individual political disagreements. Changes in US foreign policy, growing economic pressure and diverging political priorities are reshaping a partnership that has traditionally rested on shared security interests, economic ties and democratic values.
Jessica Greenberg, Marianne Riddervold and Guri Rosén argue that the current tensions may have lasting consequences for transatlantic cooperation. The political forces behind these developments are unlikely to disappear with a change of administration, making it increasingly important for Europe to prepare for a less predictable relationship.
Former Finnish Prime Minister Mari Kiviniemi also addresses the erosion of trust. While acknowledging the growing differences between the partners, she emphasises that the EU and the United States remain closely connected through their history, values and economic interdependence. In her view, maintaining cooperation requires patient diplomacy, but also a stronger Europe capable of defending its own interests.
”“The Union must strengthen its ability to protect its citizens, economy and member states’ sovereignty. A stronger Europe does not weaken the transatlantic relationship; it makes it more balanced.”
Mari KiviniemiBRE 3/2026 – Trust under strain
Read the expert articles:
European security faces a new reality
Nowhere are the consequences of changing transatlantic relations more immediate than in European security. Russia’s war against Ukraine has reinforced the importance of NATO and American military capabilities, while uncertainty surrounding US commitments has increased pressure on European countries to take greater responsibility for their own defence.
For countries bordering Russia, the stakes are particularly high. Former Latvian Minister of Defence and Foreign Affairs Artis Pabriks examines on the article how changes in Washington’s approach to Ukraine have shifted a greater share of the responsibility for European security onto European allies. He stresses the importance of credible deterrence and stronger European defence capabilities in responding to the Russian threat.
Ukraine is not only at the centre of these security challenges but is also becoming an increasingly important contributor to Europe’s defence. Yuriy Yakymenko explores how Ukraine’s experience in modern warfare and defence innovation is reshaping its position in the transatlantic security framework.
The question is neither simply whether Europe should become more independent of the United States, but how it can reduce its vulnerabilities without undermining the alliance. Niklas Helwig addresses this dilemma by arguing that Europe’s reliance on American security guarantees can also limit its freedom to act in trade, technology and other policy areas.
”“Too painful to stick together, too important to abandon - this is why the debate about European strategic autonomy should not be reduced to a choice between Europe and the transatlantic partnership. Strategic autonomy is not about achieving complete independence from Washington. It is about the capacity to make strategic choices: cooperating with the US wherever interests coincide, while retaining the ability to act when they do not. "
Niklas HelwigBRE 3/2026 – Europe's costly transatlantic dependence
Read the expert articles:
Trade tensions test economic ties
Security is only one dimension of Europe’s dependence on the United States. Trade and economic relations are also becoming increasingly shaped by geopolitical interests, as tariffs and industrial policies challenge established rules of international commerce.
The economic relationship remains extensive, but its predictability has weakened. Stan Veuger examines the unresolved tensions beneath recent attempts to stabilise EU–US trade relations. Arlo Poletti, meanwhile, argues that Europe must adapt to a world in which economic interdependence no longer guarantees cooperation. Diversifying trade relationships and strengthening Europe’s own economic position are becoming increasingly important.
Yet the changing relationship is also creating new opportunities for cooperation, particularly where economic and security interests overlap.
Minna Arve, CEO of Business Turku, examines the growing importance of Finnish maritime expertise and Arctic technologies in transatlantic industrial cooperation. The development of Arctic Security Cutters illustrates how American security needs and Finnish shipbuilding capabilities are becoming increasingly interconnected. The future of cooperation depends not only on shared interests but also on the ability to navigate changing trade and industrial policies.
Read the expert articles:
Digital dependence raises questions of European sovereignty
As economic and security interests become increasingly intertwined, Europe’s technological dependencies are receiving growing attention. American companies play a central role in Europe’s digital infrastructure, from cloud services to artificial intelligence, raising questions about control, resilience and the ability to make independent decisions.
Johan Linåker highlights the risks of depending heavily on a small number of American technology providers. He argues that open-source technologies and more transparent digital infrastructure could help Europe strengthen its technological autonomy.
Artificial intelligence presents similar challenges. Nathalie Moreno examines the growing differences between European and American approaches to AI governance. While the EU seeks to establish its own regulatory framework and strengthen technological sovereignty, much of the infrastructure and capability underpinning AI development remains under American control.
Together, the articles illustrate how technological independence has become an increasingly important part of Europe’s wider geopolitical position.
Read the expert articles:
Climate and energy security in a fragmented world
The effects of changing transatlantic relations are also visible in climate and energy policy. Diverging political priorities and growing geopolitical competition are complicating international climate cooperation at a time when the transition to cleaner energy remains urgent.
Michael A. Mehling examines how geopolitical tensions and energy security concerns are reshaping Europe’s decarbonisation efforts. Dependence on imported fossil fuels leaves Europe vulnerable to international disruptions, while investment in clean energy, resilient supply chains and domestic innovation can strengthen its strategic position.
Read the expert article:
Towards a more balanced transatlantic relationship?
Despite the uncertainty surrounding EU–US relations, the publication does not present the future of transatlantic cooperation as a simple choice between dependence and separation. The two sides remain closely connected through trade, security, technology and longstanding institutional ties.
What is changing is the balance of the relationship. Many contributors emphasise that Europe must become more capable of defending its interests and acting independently when necessary. At the same time, cooperation with the United States remains essential in addressing shared challenges.
”“A stronger and more autonomous EU is therefore not an alternative to the transatlantic relationship: It may be the best way to preserve it.”
Jessica Greenberg, Marianne Riddervold & Guri RosénBRE 2/2026 – A stronger Europe in a weaker transatlantic order
Read the full publication
Baltic Rim Economies 3/2026: Transatlantic cooperation offers diverse perspectives on how the transatlantic partnership is evolving and what these developments mean for Europe, the Baltic Sea Region and the wider international community.
