In Baltic Rim Economies 1/2026, Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine forms a central framework for examining intelligence, foresight and hybrid influence. The expert articles in the issue highlight how, alongside military conflict, intelligence, information operations, political influence and societal resilience are closely intertwined.
The contributions analyse the war’s impact on the European and Baltic Sea region security environment, as well as how the actions of Russia and Ukraine are reshaping the role of intelligence as part of modern warfare and security policy.
Ukraine relying on intelligence and resilience
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament and former Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU), examines reforms of Ukraine’s intelligence and security sector during the ongoing war. According to Nalyvaichenko, Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against Russian aggression relies heavily on the development of intelligence and counterintelligence capabilities, as well as on close international cooperation.
Nalyvaichenko emphasises that Ukraine’s progress towards the EU and NATO is not merely a foreign policy objective but requires profound institutional reforms in which intelligence plays a central role in strengthening both military performance and societal resilience.
Russia as an intelligence state
Several authors analyse Russia as a state in which intelligence is not merely a function of the security services, but a central instrument of power. Stephen Blank (Foreign Policy Research Institute, USA) describes Russia as an intelligence state in which military force, intelligence, information influence and political coercion form an inseparable whole.
According to Blank, the war in Ukraine reveals how Russia exploits intelligence not only on the battlefield, but also more broadly as a tool of strategic deterrence and political influence in Europe and the United States.
Hybrid influence and the information battle in Europe
Hybrid warfare does not stop at Ukraine’s borders but targets European societies more broadly. Hanna Mäkinen (University of Turku) examines Russia’s hybrid influence in Europe, with a particular focus on the role of information influence in shaping the security environment.
According to Mäkinen, influence operations target institutions, media and public trust alike, and responding to hybrid threats requires both intelligence-based measures and broader societal responses.
Influence networks and intelligence in Western societies
The broader international dimension of Russian influence operations is addressed by Olga Bertelsen (Tiffin University, USA), author Craig Unger, and author and intelligence history researcher Mikko Porvali. Bertelsen examines Russian influence operations among Western intellectuals and opinion-makers, while Unger analyses Russian influence networks within the US political system.
Porvali, in turn, discusses the transformation of Russian human intelligence (HUMINT) activities as a result of the war and intensified counterintelligence efforts. Together, these articles illustrate how Russian intelligence activity extends beyond conventional military operations and directly affects political and societal structures in Western democracies.
- Olga Bertelsen: Russian influence operations among western intellectuals
- Craig Unger: America’s new Manchurian Candidate
- Mikko Porvali: Russian human intelligence in a new environment
Russian ideology and strategic thinking behind hybrid warfare
Russian hybrid influence and intelligence activity cannot be understood without examining the country’s broader ideological and strategic thinking. Jardar Østbø (Norwegian Defence University College, Norway) analyses the evolution of Russian security thinking and the ways in which ideology, historical narratives and threat perceptions shape Russia’s foreign and security policy.
According to Østbø, Russian hybrid warfare is neither ad hoc nor reactive, but part of a longer continuum in which intelligence, information operations and political influence are seen as core instruments of power. This perspective helps to explain the systematic and long-term nature of Russia’s actions vis-à-vis Western democracies.
A comprehensive overview of Russia, Ukraine and hybrid warfare
Baltic Rim Economies 1/2026 offers a broad and in-depth overview of the security policy dimensions of the war between Russia and Ukraine. The contributions examine the conflict through the lenses of intelligence, foresight, information influence, ideology and societal resilience – all of which are central to the future of security in Europe and the Baltic Sea region.
Read the full publication: Baltic Rim Economies 1/2026: Intelligence & Foresight
