The latest issue of Baltic Rim Economies (1/2026) examines the growing importance of intelligence and foresight in security policy in Europe, the Baltic Sea region and the wider international environment. This exceptionally broad expert publication brings together perspectives on geopolitical transformation, the realities of war and hybrid threats, rapid technological change, and the relationship between intelligence and democracy.
The articles are structured around five key themes that together provide a comprehensive picture of today’s and tomorrow’s security challenges.
Intelligence and foresight as foundations for decision-making
At the heart of the issue is the role of intelligence and foresight in supporting strategic decision-making. Several authors emphasise that security policy decisions increasingly require analysed information, a comprehensive situational picture and the ability to anticipate future developments in an uncertain operating environment.
The importance of intelligence as a cornerstone of national and regional security is discussed, among others, by Mats Löfström (MP and Chairman of the Intelligence Oversight Committee, Parliament of Finland) and Joseph Wippl (Boston University, USA), who examine intelligence as support for decision-making and as a provider of early warning. Sir David Omand (King’s College London, UK) reflects on the enduring value of intelligence in democratic societies and its role as a strategic resource.
In the latter part of the publication, the significance of foresight and futures thinking in security policy is further explored by Toni Ahlqvist (University of Turku, Finland), Christoph O. Meyer (King’s College London, UK) and Jari Kaivo-oja (University of Turku, Finland).
European and Baltic Sea security in transition
Europe’s security environment is undergoing rapid change, and the contributors approach this development from a broad perspective. The articles analyse the EU’s strengthening role as a security actor, regional cooperation in the Baltic Sea region, and growing uncertainties in the transatlantic relationship.
Ilkka Salmi, Deputy Director-General for Security, Workplace and Wellbeing at the European Commission, describes how the European Union is evolving from a largely technocratic actor into a geopolitical security actor, where intelligence and situational awareness play an increasingly central role in decision-making. Hannu Himanen, Finland’s former Ambassador to Russia (2012–2016), examines Europe’s responsibility for its own security at a time when the transatlantic relationship is in flux. Edvilas Raudonikis, Ambassador of Lithuania to Finland, highlights the importance of Nordic–Baltic (NB8) cooperation in supporting regional stability and security.
Ukraine, Russia and the realities of hybrid warfare
Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine forms a central frame of reference for many of the articles. The war has served as a concrete testing ground for the significance of intelligence, hybrid influence and societal resilience.
Valentyn Nalyvaichenko, Member of the Ukrainian Parliament and former Head of Ukraine’s Security Service (SSU), examines reforms in Ukraine’s intelligence and security sector and the country’s progress towards the EU and NATO. Russian activities and hybrid warfare are analysed, among others, by Stephen Blank (Foreign Policy Research Institute, USA) and Hanna Mäkinen (Pan-European Institute, University of Turku, Finland), who discuss Russia’s intelligence role, influence operations and information warfare in Europe. The Russia-focused section of the issue deepens understanding of how military, political and intelligence instruments intertwine in the ongoing conflict.
Technological transformation: AI, OSINT and data in intelligence
Rapid technological development is fundamentally transforming intelligence practices. The publication explores the implications of artificial intelligence, large language models, open-source intelligence (OSINT), and satellite and geospatial data for security and warfare.
Robert Dover (University of Hull, UK) analyses the opportunities and challenges posed by AI and language models for intelligence analysis, while Stephen Coulthart (University at Albany, USA) examines the growing role of OSINT, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. Several articles also address the links between disinformation, information influence, and bio- and CBRN-related threats within the evolving technological environment.
Democracy, trust and the legitimacy of intelligence
A cross-cutting theme of the issue is the relationship between intelligence, democracy and the rule of law. Many authors stress that alongside effectiveness, legitimacy, oversight and the maintenance of public trust are essential conditions for sustainable security policy.
Former Denmark’s Director of Intelligence Anja Dalgaard-Nielsen writes about the importance of diversity in intelligence organisations and its impact on the quality of analysis. Andrew Defty (University of Lincoln, UK) examines the role of parliamentary oversight in intelligence activities. Several contributions also reflect trust in institutions, ethical questions, and the relationship between intelligence and power in democratic societies.
A comprehensive overview of present and future security policy
Baltic Rim Economies 1/2026 offers an exceptionally comprehensive overview of the role of intelligence and foresight in contemporary security policy. The wide range of themes demonstrates that security is not merely a military issue, but one that is increasingly intertwined with decision-making, technology, democracy and societal resilience.
Read the full issue here: Baltic Rim Economies 1/2026 – Intelligence & Foresight
