We don’t speak much of the West anymore. This is because of the fundamental transformation of the transatlantic relationship. Western unity falters when it is most needed. With American leadership in ruins, the “West” is no more. It remains for Europe to pick up the pieces, but the divided continent is not punching its weight. Ukraine’s survival adds urgency to the task.
In 2020, the Munich Security Conference published a much talked-about report entitled Westlessness. The term itself was described as “a widespread feeling of uneasiness and restlessness in the face of increasing uncertainty about the enduring purpose of the West”.
Little did the authors of the report know where the West would be in five years’ time. For more than a decade, they had been looking at a major transformation of the international order in the making. The prime mover of this change was, and continues to be, Russia. By attacking Ukraine in 2014 and then launching a full-scale war against it in February 2022, Russia is openly challenging the rules-based liberal order.
We may well overestimate the extent and significance of the turbulence around us. Yet a new order seems to be emerging, even if its contours still defy us. Timothy Garton Ash, for one, recently identified 24 February 2022, the day of the Russian invasion, as the starting point of a new, yet unnamed era. Carl Bildt wrote in November that “we have entered a period of global disorder”.
Russia alone is too weak both economically and militarily to pose a fatal challenge to the existing order. In 2014, it pivoted to the east and has since been seeking support from China. The two countries speak of replacing the American-led “unipolar” order with a “multipolar” one. It is a euphemism for a great power dominated world in which small and medium states would be left out in the cold.
Even by combining their forces, Russia and China would not be able to seriously challenge the rules-based world. It is crumbling not because Russia and China want it to fail but because the main protagonist of the liberal order is allowing it to happen. Since Donald Trump returned to the White House, nothing has been sacred. The rules, values and principles once cherished by the West are in decline. Moscow and Beijing are thrilled.
Europe, slow to move and submerged in internal squabbles, is faced with a quadruple challenge. European nations must, first of all, not only step up their efforts to support Ukraine but also prop up their own defences. It is expensive, as this cannot be a zero-sum game. Political leaders face a Herculean task, as many countries have fallen into a deep hibernation, with their pacifistic electorates rejecting the possibility of a European war.
Secondly, while the United States is not about to abandon NATO, European allies must get used to the idea of finally taking their collective defence seriously. A more European defence alliance is in the horizon, but the EU is not equipped to take that role. The change is gradual, unless Russia decides to seriously test the alliance. Beyond the frontline states such as Finland, this unpleasant perspective is not widely recognised.
Thirdly, European capitals are learning to deal with a fickle, self-centred and thin-skinned president in the White House. As fissures are starting to appear in the MAGA movement, the task will be ever more precarious. Tensions between the White House and the State Department will be exploited by the Kremlin’s masterminds. The situation will only become more difficult to manage as 2028 approaches.
Finally, while Russia must not be rewarded with normalising bilateral relations, Europeans have to maintain a carefully gauged dialogue with it. The diplomatic channel with Moscow has been monopolised by American amateurs with little experience in diplomacy. European governments should, however, avoid the fallacy of grandiose summitry with Russia. It takes two to tango, and Russia knows how to play hard.
The centrepiece in all of this is Ukraine – its independence, its territorial integrity, its sovereignty. European support to Ukraine, be it military, political or economic, will only gain in importance and urgency. As important as it is to ensure Ukraine’s survival, the stakes are much higher. The future of the liberal order is at stake.
Recognising the cold facts of the situation is a necessary but not sufficient condition. An enormous responsibility for defending Western values falls squarely on Europe’s shoulders. However, with its divisions, sluggish decision-making and legalism, Europeans are dismally ill-equipped to carry that responsibility. Europe finally needs to walk its talk. it needs a strategic vision extending well beyond the Ukraine war, and perseverance and resilience to carry that vision through.
This text was finalised on 30 November 2025.
The writer is author of three books, most recently Where Angels Fear to Tread: Aggressive Russia and Finnish Security (2024, in Finnish).
Hannu Himanen
Ambassador (ret.), Ambassador of Finland in Moscow 2012 to 2016
Finland
