The energy transition in Poland is being delayed. For years, the priority has been on the security of supply of gas and oil, not on decarbonisation. Although Poland has managed to increase the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the energy mix, the country still relies on fossil fuels and the transition has not become part of a lasting, cross-party consensus.
Poland’s energy transition is a race against time. Although binding energy and climate policy targets were already adopted at EU level in the 2000s, Poland, which is heavily dependent on fossil fuels, for many years focused its energy policy on the security of fossil fuels’ supplies. This applied in particular to the gas sector and the plans announced in 2016 to become completely independent of Russia. Although these plans were successfully implemented, mainly thanks to the construction and commissioning of the regasification terminal in Świnoujście in 2015 as well as the Baltic Pipe gas pipeline in 2022, the dependence of the economy and the energy sector on fossil fuels remained at a very high level in the first three decades after regaining sovereignty, with coal dominating electricity sector and heat generation.
Although some progress was made in Poland in the area of energy transition between 2015 and 2023, particularly in terms of increasing the share of solar energy in the energy mix and reducing fossil fuel emissions as part of the EU 2020 target, the authorities at the time did not show much interest in actually accelerating the process of change. This was reflected, among other things, in the introduction of regulatory barriers to the development of onshore wind energy, the inadequate use of funds from the ETS, the lack of real measures to decarbonise industry and the heating sector and the lack of ambitious plans and measures to move away from coal. Although various political forces in Poland emphasised that nuclear energy would be an important element in the process of decarbonisation, the actual efforts to build nuclear power plants in Poland until the 2020s were more symbolic in nature.
The political change in Poland in 2023 brought a fundamental shift in the approach of the authorities, but it is still too early to speak of a real determination to accelerate the energy transition.
On the one hand, the new government, which came to power in 2023, has announced more ambitious targets for the energy transition, as shown by the latest version of the National Energy and Climate Plan (July 2025), which aims to increase the share of RES in electricity generation in Poland to almost 52% in 2030 and 80% in 2040. The connection of new RES sources is to be made possible by, among other things, the largest investments in the expansion of the electricity grids in Poland’s history. Polish energy companies are carrying out projects with foreign partners to build large wind farms in the Baltic Sea. In addition, Poland wants to reduce emissions not only in the electricity sector but also in industry by building large and small nuclear power plants.
On the other hand, however, energy and climate issues are scattered throughout the government and divided between several ministries and offices, which continues to hinder effective coordination of activities. The new government continues its policy of freezing energy prices with minor adjustments and avoids introducing more systemic solutions for fear of social unrest and opposition from right-wing political forces, which have made criticism of the European Green Deal one of the main elements of their election programmes during recent election campaigns in Poland (in the 2024 EP elections or 2025 presidential elections). Moreover, the defeat of the candidate of the ruling camp in the presidential elections will make it difficult to introduce more ambitious solutions for the energy transition. The new president Karol Nawrocki has openly spoken out against the European Green Deal and in favour of maintaining the role of coal in the energy sector. One of his first decisions since taking office in August 2025 was to veto a bill that liberalised the rules for the construction of onshore wind farms in Poland.
The energy transition, i.e. the accelerated transition away from fossil fuels in Poland’s energy sector, should become part of a cross-party consensus. Firstly, accelerating the energy transition will strengthen Poland’s energy security in the long-term perspective. It will help reduce imports of oil and gas from abroad, which cause significant economic costs every year. Secondly, accelerating the transition will lead to a reduction in energy prices, which are currently an increasingly pressing social and economic problem.
However, in view of the domestic political tensions and the different approaches of the government and the opposition to the energy transition, achieving such a consensus could prove to be very difficult in the coming years.
Szymon Kardaś
Ph.D.
Senior Policy Fellow
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Poland
Assistant Professor
University of Warsaw
Poland
szymon.kardas@ecfr.eu
