Poland is rapidly strengthening its military potential in order to maximize its ability to defend its territory and provide support to threatened allies. Although it is increasingly well prepared for a traditional conflict involving tanks, aircraft, and missiles, Russia’s drone attack on Polish territory on 10 September has shown that asymmetric conflict using cheap, mass-produced unmanned systems also poses a threat. Poland and other countries are much less prepared for such a scenario.
Russia, as a revisionist state that has not come to terms with the collapse of the USSR and the loss of its sphere of influence in Central and Eastern Europe, poses a strategic and direct military threat to Poland. The goal of Russian policy is not only to subjugate Ukraine, but also to force the West to make concessions on the demands presented by the Kremlin in the form of an ultimatum in December 2021. Russia demanded that NATO and the US not only withdraw their troops to pre-1997 positions, but also sign treaties that would limit NATO’s ability to send reinforcements to Russia’s neighbors. In a worst-case scenario, Russia could provoke a war with countries on NATO’s eastern flank, including Poland, and then threaten nuclear escalation to try to prevent the rest of the Alliance from providing them with significant support and seek to force concessions.
The change in strategic realities, linked to the US perception of China as the main threat and its reduced interest in supporting European security, encourages Russia to continue its war with Ukraine and maintain its maximalist demands, but also to intensify its aggressive actions against NATO. This increases the risk of Russian aggression against the Alliance, especially if European countries fail to significantly strengthen their defence capabilities within the next few years.
Poland takes Russian threat seriously and is trying to strengthen its military capabilities as quickly as possible. The Polish army currently has about 200,000 soldiers, including 160,000 on active duty and about 40,000 in the territorial defense forces. By 2035, it is planned to increase this number to 250,000 active duty soldiers and 50,000 territorial defense troops. Within a few years, four landforces divisions should be fully prepared to repel a potential attack from the territory of Belarus and the Kaliningrad Oblast. By 2029, the land forces will be armed with approximately 1,200 mainly modern Leopard, K2, and Abrams tanks (currently approximately 750) and several hundred MLRS launchers. The air force will have approximately 1,000 JASSM missiles, most of them in the extended-range versions. At the beginning of 2025, the armament agency responsible for modernizing the armed forces was implementing over 460 arms contracts worth $135 billion.
Ambitious technical modernization is supported by record-high defense spending. In 2024, Poland’s defense budget amounted to approximately $35 billion (PLN 140 billion), or about 3.8% of GDP – the highest percentage in NATO. In 2025, this spending is expected to reach 4.7% of GDP, or over $40 billion. Such a high level of spending is possible thanks to public acceptance and political consensus, but also to the good condition of the Polish economy. Since 1990, Poland’s GDP has grown by over 800%. In 2025, Poland joined the group of 20 countries whose GDP exceeds one trillion dollars.
It will be difficult for Russia to carry out scenarios of aggression that may involve the occupation of Polish territory. The enormous losses Russia is incurring in the war with Ukraine for at least several years lower the risk of full-scale aggression against Poland and other NATO countries. However, Russia may try to push Poland into a gray zone of security by provoking an asymmetric conflict using drones and missiles. The attack carried out on 10 September, when Russia directed about 20 drones at Poland, clearly indicates such a threat. Just like in Ukraine, Russia may use cheap, massively produced drones and gliding bombs to turn the conflict into a war of attrition, hoping that it will be able to persevere longer and force political concessions. The likelihood of a drone and missile war is increased by the defensive nature of NATO, which has difficulty responding to attacks that do not constitute full-scale military aggression, with troops phisically enetering NATO’s territory. In addition, Russia may be encouraged to escalate by serious deficiencies in the air and missile defense capabilities of the European part of NATO.
Poland is developing an ambitious plan for a multi-layered air and missile defense system consisting of modern sensors and effectors. However, this is a process that will take up to a decade. By 2035, Poland will have a system based on eight Patriot batteries, hundreds of launchers with British CAMM missiles, 32 fifth-generation F35 fighter jets and 96 Apache helicopters. However, these advanced capabilities will primarily provide the ability to combat cruise and ballistic missiles. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine shows that Russia is capable of carrying out an attack using up to 800 drones in a single day. Some of them are decoys designed to saturate air defences, while the rest are strike drones designed to sow death and destruction.
Combating such threats will require Poland and other allies to develop cheaper, mass-produced anti-drone systems. They can include Electronic Warfare Systems, lasers, drones, missiles ect. The proper combination should provide the capability to destroy hundreds of enemy drones at a relatively low cost. The development of such system is long overdue. The attack on Poland shows that Russia has found a gap, which it is likely to continue to exploit.
Wojciech Lorenz
Former Head of International Security Programme
The Polish Institute of International Affairs, PISM
Poland
