The craft of operational intelligence analysis has never been more important than now. Although technology has the potential to significantly improve intelligence analysis, a human intellect still has to critically assess the findings and make up their mind whether or not to believe in and act upon them. Operational analysis, in criminal intelligence, is the craft of discovering and describing what has happened or is about to happen within a case. This is done by critically assessing, cross-referencing and presenting all-source intelligence and evidence about events, places, people and activities, it is a modern version of Sherlock Holmes’ mystery solving craft.
Operational analysis is similar to the historian’s methodology. Both tell a story about how events unfold based on an evaluation of sources and an interpretation that forms an explanation. The story’s plausibility is assessed in two dimensions, its coherence and the reliability of each story element. Operational analysis result in a specific and detailed nongeneralized explanation about a narrow slice of reality, which is necessary for a successful warning or a conviction in court. But both create understanding and insight by learning about how events happened.
Operational analysts should become proficient learners since effective learning applies to both gaining understanding about the details of a case and gaining skills in specific analytical techniques. Learning is done through active recall and spaced repetition. Operational analysts practice active recall and spaced repetition when working with data in a case by creating visualisation charts, discussing the elements of the case and writing summaries of the findings. Here analysts can improve by using the Feynman technique in their work. When using it, you: 1) break the topic down into small parts and retrieve them from memory; 2) write about each part in simple terms or visualise them; 3) review what you have done and identify gaps in your understanding; and 4) revise your output. Importantly, it is done as if you are going to teach someone else. Experiments show that you learn better by using these steps and, as an operational analyst, you have an output that is ready for immediate dissemination. And what is dissemination but a way of teaching someone about the specifics of a case and why they should believe the conclusions. In intelligence and investigations, the technique should be complemented with the use of references during the writing process.
We learn by actively working with a material, that is why visualisation charts and written atomic notes about parts of a case should be a core task in analysis. Writing notes is usually done during meetings, but it should also be done as analytical case notes. Analytical notes can be indexed and linked into a Zettelkasten system or a wiki which both organically link notes together. Over time these will grow into complete analysis reports. Atomic notes and short memos are what you write using the Feynman technique. Notetaking can also be used to capture that which has not been registered in intelligence platforms, such as key information only found in a colleague’s memory.
There are techniques in how to take notes and learn, such as the Cornell Method where you divide the page into different areas to be able to categorise the note’s content. By categorisation and the use of an index you instantly collate the information you are working with. Many analysts use a notebook where notes are compiled in a chronological ‘catch-all’ function as the work progress. A complementary way is to use a compendium notebook, i.e. a case or topic specific notebook and apply the Cornell Method in it.
Notes don’t have to be written text. In fact, visualisations such as maps, link, event, flow and activity charts are representations of atomic elements. Thinking exists on a scale between verbal and visual. Verbal thinking is words formed in our head, while visual thinking is either spatial visualisations of forms or object-visualisation where thoughts appear as an image or a movie scene. In experiments comprehension is improved significantly with the addition of pictures even for verbal and auditory learners, which emphasise the importance of visualisations to improve understanding and thinking. That is why visualisations should be at the centre of learning and analysing the details of a case and teaching them to a decision maker.
These techniques can be done in conjunction with or independent of technology and are timeless in their use. They are your personal complement to intelligence software platforms. With operational intelligence analysts being knowledge workers, these techniques should be at the forefront of their skill set and they are fairly easy to implement. By applying them you improve your personal knowledge management system in order to tell the operational story about how a crime was or is about to be committed.
Magnus Andersson
Intelligence Project Manager
Swedish Police/Police Intelligence Division South
Sweden
Ph.D. Student
Department of Political Science, Intelligence Studies
Lund University
Sweden
magnus.andersson@svet.lu.se
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