It is a long-term strategic priority for China to secure its presence and influence in the Arctic. It is, however, not correct when US President Trump warns about Chinese ships circling Greenland. The Chinese already consider the island part of the American sphere of influence, and therefore no longer give it much strategic attention. For China, the Russian Arctic is in focus.
Introduction
The renewed American efforts to secure control of Greenland have not received much attention in China. There are no Chinese investments or projects in Greenland today, and, from Beijing’s perspective, the so-called ’Greenland crisis’ does not affect China-US strategic competition in the region. Rather, Beijing has in recent years increased the Arctic dimension of cooperation with Russia. Moscow has previously been very reluctant to let the Chinese into the Russian Arctic, but has clearly found itself in a weaker negotiating position vis-à-vis Beijing since launching the full-blown invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which has made the Russians more economically and diplomatically dependent on China. Strengthened cooperation with Russia, which enables a growing Chinese presence and activities in the Russian Arctic, which constitutes approximately half of the Arctic, can go a long way towards ensuring Chinese strategic interests in the region.
Why is the Arctic strategically important for China?
Securing China’s presence and influence in the Arctic is not only about gaining access to resources and to the new sea routes opening as climate change transforms the region. It is also about ensuring China’s leading role in critical innovation and emerging technologies, thereby enabling it to set global norms and standards. In China, the Arctic and, more broadly, the polar regions – together with outer space, cyberspace, and the deep sea – are characterized as ‘strategic new frontiers’ based on the expectation that, particularly in these frontiers, which are among the most challenging to operate in, there are opportunities to develop and test groundbreaking knowledge and new technologies. The Arctic is characterized by very harsh and rapidly changing weather conditions, so if the Chinese can get, for example, underwater drones, communication, and measurement equipment to work there, the assumption is that it can work anywhere. Thus, Chinese engagement in the Arctic is to help secure the technological advantage in the strategic competition with the US. It implies that a key priority for Beijing is to ensure access to the region for Chinese scientists, engineers, and other specialists.
China has no guaranteed Arctic access
The Chinese are, however, very aware of their weakness in an Arctic increasingly framed by strategic competition. Unlike the US and Russia, China does not have territory in the region and thus no guaranteed access. Therefore, a long-standing Chinese concern has been that the Arctic states will divide the region among themselves and prevent non-Arctic states such as China from gaining access. In many ways, the Chinese see the current American efforts to control Greenland as a continuation of what they experienced during the first Trump administration – that is, as American efforts to establish themselves in the region and prevent non-Arctic states such as China from gaining access. To promote its case, Beijing often cites the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), emphasizing that parts of the Arctic Ocean are international waters, where all states have the right to sail and conduct activities such as scientific research and resource extraction. This message is a reproduction of the main message of the first – and still only – Chinese Arctic strategy, published in January 2018, which also explicitly emphasizes that Arctic governance needs to be reformed and include non-Arctic states. As the strategic competition with the US heats up, Beijing is under no illusions that Washington will heed China’s calls. Therefore, Beijing has – as mentioned above – increased its focus on the Russian Arctic, and the key question is how much space Moscow is willing to give China there.
A long-term Chinese strategic priority
Going forward, it is crucial to assess why, where, and how China engages in the region, as well as how cooperation between China and Russia evolves in the Arctic. Beijing is to keep pushing because – as stressed above – the core engine driving China’s engagement in the Arctic is its determination to lead in critical innovation and emerging technologies, thereby linking the Arctic to Xi Jinping’s twin goals of developing a high-quality economy and building a world-class military force by 2049. Securing its presence and influence in the Arctic is thus a long-term strategic priority for China.
Camilla T. N. Sørensen
Associate Professor
Department of Strategy and War Studies, Royal Danish Defense College
Copenhagen, Denmark
caso@fak.dk
