Poland has become a central actor in NATO’s eastern deterrence strategy, scaling up defence spending nearly fivefold over the past decade and aiming to field the European Union’s largest land army. While this military build-up has enhanced operational capacity and alliance integration, it has outpaced developments in civil protection and strategic autonomy. Poland’s evolving defence posture illustrates the challenges of aligning hard power with societal resilience and long-term sustainability.
Since joining NATO in 1999, Poland has transformed its Cold War-era mobilisation force into a modern, NATO-compatible army. Deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, and the Balkans provided operational experience and exposure to Western doctrine. Yet until Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, investments remained modest, and much of the force relied on Soviet-era equipment.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 marked a turning point. Poland’s defence budget rose from €9 billion in 2014 to €43.5 billion in 2025—equal to 4.7% of GDP, the highest in NATO. Military personnel more than doubled to over 200,000 in 2024, with a 2035 target of 300,000. The creation of the Territorial Defence Forces in 2017 added a community-based reserve, enhancing both capacity and cohesion.
Modernisation spans all branches. The army is acquiring Abrams and K2 tanks, HIMARS systems, and new howitzers. The air force is integrating F-35s, Apaches, and Saab 340 surveillance aircraft. The navy is investing in multi-role frigates and advanced minehunters. Poland also became the first country outside the United States to adopt the Integrated Battle Command System, digitally linking its air and missile defences.
Defence ties with the United States remain central to Poland’s security, anchored by the permanent presence of US forces formalised in 2020, including the V Corps Forward Command and multiple support units. The 2024 activation of a US missile defence site in Redzikowo further embedded Poland into NATO’s deterrence architecture. Yet uncertainty over US commitments amid shifting domestic politics has led Warsaw to accelerate domestic defence production and press for deeper European cooperation. This pivot, however, faces structural constraints: while European industry is expanding, few suppliers can yet match the scale, speed, or technological breadth needed to sustain Poland’s rearmament.
Hybrid attacks involving the instrumentalization of migrants—allegedly orchestrated by Belarus since 2021—prompted Poland to fortify its eastern border with Belarus and Kaliningrad. A 186-kilometre steel barrier and surveillance systems were installed to deter irregular crossings. In 2024, Poland launched the €2.3 billion ‘Eastern Shield’—its largest defence infrastructure project since the Cold War—combining layered fortifications, anti-tank systems, AI surveillance, and electronic warfare. While reflecting heightened insecurity, the initiative raises concerns over long-term sustainability, civil liberties, and the limited role of EU and NATO in co-financing such projects.
Civil protection remains a major vulnerability. In 2022, fewer than 4% of Poles had access to functioning shelters, many of which failed basic safety standards. Public warning systems and evacuation protocols were outdated or absent. The 2025 Civil Protection Act mandates shelter coverage for 50% of urban and 25% of rural populations by 2032, backed by an annual allocation of at least 0.3% of GDP. The Act enables full state funding for priority projects and promotes dual-use infrastructure. Implementation is shared among local authorities, emergency services, and national crisis bodies under the Ministry of the Interior. While the law signals a shift toward greater civilian resilience, concerns remain over local capacity, feasibility, and public engagement.
Public preparedness efforts have also expanded. A 2022 civil crisis guide encourages household self-sufficiency during the first 72 hours of an emergency. Voluntary programmes such as Train with the Army and Vacations with the Army offer civilians basic training in firearms, first aid, and crisis response, fostering military–civilian ties.
Poland’s rapid military build-up has enhanced its strategic standing—but exposed the limits of a defence model built primarily on hard power. Without robust civil protection, public preparedness, and sustainable procurement, its deterrence posture risks overextension. The balancing act of Polish defence now lies not merely in its arsenal, but in its ability to integrate military strength with societal resilience.
Veronika Slakaityte
Analyst
Danish Institute for International Studies
Denmark
