In recent years, the Arctic has become increasingly entangled in global geopolitical competition, and the regional situation has been deteriorating. Nevertheless, climate change, environmental protection and sustainable development remain of vital importance. For all stakeholders, identifying converging interests in the changing Arctic order and advancing Arctic governance through cooperation remains an important task.
1. The Shifting Arctic Order
The Arctic faces rising uncertainty and securitization. Currently, the Arctic faces challenges from at least three aspects. First, the confrontation between the U.S.-led West and Russia is unlikely to be resolved in the short term. Although both sides claim that enhancing military capabilities is aimed at addressing security threats from each other, such actions have further intensified mutual accusations and unease, triggering additional military responses. Second, the dominant issues of Arctic governance have undergone a fundamental transformation. The shift from ‘low politics’ to ‘high politics’ makes constructive cooperation far more difficult. Third, the foundation for cooperation among Western countries has also been shaken due to several policy initiatives during Trump’s second term (such as the Greenland issue and tariff frictions). The cooperative atmosphere has become tense. These three challenges have collectively driven the continuous rise of uncertainty and securitization in the region.
Arctic governance has fallen into a predicament. For more than two decades after the Cold War, peace and cooperation remained the overriding theme of the Arctic. However, current security concerns in the region have eroded the foundation of mutual trust and the cooperative atmosphere among states, dealing a severe blow to regional governance. As the core platform for Arctic governance, the Arctic Council has not yet fully resumed its work. Other mechanisms have also been disrupted to varying degrees. Even the United States, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and Canada (Arctic 7) have deepened cooperation, with Russia kept outside. At the same time, Russia has proactively pursued cooperation with other stakeholders. The Arctic is likely to witness the gradual formation of parallel governance mechanisms dominated by the U.S.-led West and Russia, respectively, trapping regional governance in a lasting deadlock.
2. Arctic Governance as an Opportunity for China–Nordic Cooperation
Arctic governance calls for genuine multilateralism. At present, the Arctic governance system is confronted with severe fragmentation and exclusivity. On the one hand, the Arctic 7 have strengthened internal coordination, effectively excluding Russia. On the other hand, Russia has sought to bypass established platforms and build new mechanisms. Both approaches fall into the quagmire of exclusive multilateralism, which only embraces like-minded partners while shutting out geopolitical rivals. Nevertheless, non-traditional security challenges in the Arctic are distinctly cross-border in nature. Exclusive cooperation arrangements fail to generate effective collective action at scale. Instead, they may exacerbate the tragedy of the commons due to the absence of key governance participants.
China and the Nordic states share common concerns in Arctic governance. Nordic states pay close attention to issues including climate change, environmental protection, ecosystem health, sustainable development, green economic transition, the well-being and living conditions of Arctic residents, as well as scientific research and knowledge-based development. China’s Arctic policy aims to deepen scientific research, protect the fragile ecosystem, address climate challenges, and pursue sustainable resource use while respecting the sovereignty and rights of Arctic states. It is evident that the two sides have substantial overlaps in the value orientation and action pathways of Arctic governance. Such a foundation of common interests creates realistic conditions for deepening China-Nordic cooperation.
Proposal for China-Nordic Arctic Cooperation. Against the backdrop of complex and volatile geopolitics in the Arctic, China and the Nordic states should work together to promote Arctic governance. As major actors within the Arctic Circle, the Nordic states should play a more pivotal and constructive role in Arctic affairs. As a responsible major global power and an important Arctic stakeholder, China should also actively participate in Arctic governance. Both sides ought to transcend geopolitical disturbances and explore a co-governance path that is guided by science, aimed at sustainable development, and underpinned by dialogue. The two sides may take low‑sensitive areas as a breakthrough, and prioritize functional cooperation on climate change response, environmental protection, green shipping standards, biodiversity conservation and regional sustainable development, so as to gradually accumulate mutual trust and consolidate the foundation for long-term cooperation.
Dong Limin
Associate Professor
School of International Affairs and Public Administration, Ocean University of China
China
donglimin@ouc.edu.cn
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