President Donald Trump is challenging the foundations of the international order. Pre-existing tensions between the US and EU are now hardening into open rivalries. This breakdown poses particular challenges for European frontline states that have built their security strategies on American security guarantees and the transatlantic partnership. For Poland, this development calls into question the foundational assumptions of its foreign policy and forces the country to abandon its decades-long approach of complementary alignment with NATO, the EU, and the United States. However, this strategic dilemma has received limited attention in Polish policy discourse so far, with political leaders yet to openly acknowledge the fundamental challenge to Poland’s traditional approach.
Poland’s strategic doctrine for decades has been predicated on three pillars: NATO, the EU and special relations with the United States. This multi-institutional framework was designed to achieve maximum protection through the deepest possible integration with NATO, the EU and the US. This manifested in concrete policy choices rooted in the assumption that American and European security interests were fundamentally aligned. Poland secured enhanced NATO and American presence on its territory, achieved the 2% NATO defense spending target in 2018 and embraced comprehensive EU membership, including single market integration and legal harmonization. The country champions American and European military equipment purchases while engaging deeply in European defense funding mechanisms, continuously seeking increased American military presence in Eastern Europe and strengthening energy ties. Within this framework, the US-European partnership represented more than cooperation—it constituted the foundational architecture of the international liberal order. Through overlapping institutional memberships between the EU and NATO and institutional coordination, Poland could simultaneously deepen its Atlantic and European ties without confronting competing loyalties or strategic trade-offs.
This comfortable equilibrium, however, has come under unprecedented strain. Trump’s presidency has transformed the United States into a disruptive force within the transatlantic security architecture. He has imposed tariffs on EU goods, threatened to acquire Greenland, suspended aid for Ukraine, denounced European tech regulations as attacks on American companies, and engaged with President Putin as an equal. European leaders are already showing signs of greater assertiveness—from maintaining firm positions on tech regulations to independent diplomatic initiatives such as the recognition of Palestine. Although Europeans face significant constraints in building consensus on confronting the United States, they appear increasingly unwilling to simply acquiesce to American demands. This dynamic is likely to intensify as Trump escalates his requirements for alignment, recently announcing that European toughness on China and India will determine US sanctions policy on Russia—effectively demanding that Europe subordinate its trade partnerships to American priorities.
Poland had already aligned with American strategic preferences before Trump explicitly demanded such alignment: spending almost 5% of GDP on defense, purchasing American LNG, severing energy ties with Russia, awarding nuclear power contracts to American companies, and sourcing roughly 70% of arms purchases from US suppliers. This pattern of voluntary alignment reflected the broader European assumption that American and European interests were fundamentally compatible.
However, this comfortable complementarity is now under severe strain. The emerging US-EU rivalry poses a fundamental question: could Poland be forced to choose sides between its key partners? The dilemma is particularly acute given the security context—Russian threats have reached their highest levels since World War II, Russia continues to test NATO boundaries, and the Eastern Flank cannot realistically be defended without American military support.
Despite clear evidence that Trump’s policies are not in Poland’s national interest, both camps of polarized Polish politics (the ruling coalition and the Presidential Palace) continue strengthening ties with Washington. Tellingly, Poland’s rising nationalist-conservative movement has signaled readiness to embrace US demands for China decoupling—an approach that contrasts sharply with the EU’s pursuit of trade diversification.
Poland’s traditional foreign policy foundations— the unshakeable transatlantic partnership and equally stable EU-US pillars—are eroding. This convergence of external threat and alliance uncertainty creates profound strategic uncertainty for Poland. A deeper structural transformation is underway in which alliances and alliance partnerships will be redefined. Poland requires a comprehensive reassessment of its foreign and security policy framework that acknowledges the end of complementarity and prepares for an era of strategic choices.
Marta Prochwicz
Deputy Head European Council on Foreign Relations Warsaw
Poland
