Marko Maunula: Public diplomacy: Baltic region’s Trump card?

Donald Trump’s presidency has reminded, crudely yet effectively, how indifferent to its allies’ needs and desires the United States can be. American foreign policy can turn quickly, shaped by the whims and visions of its chief executive.

While American politicians can be cool and, as the last decade shows, even confrontational toward its historic friends, they remain very sensitive to American public opinion. To paraphrase George F. Kennan, U.S. foreign policy today remains impervious to logic of reason, but sensitive to logic of vox populi. This provides an opening to Europeans and especially its northern rim.

With smart and well-targeted public diplomacy, nations in the Baltic region can exert positive grassroots influence on American politics. Now it might be the right time to focus and aim directly to the hearts and minds of American voters.

Important battleground states of Michigan and Wisconsin host substantial number of descendants of North European migrants from the Baltic region. Wisconsin has the highest percentage of people with Polish ancestry and one of the highest with German roots. Its Nordic populations are also substantial, with Swedes and Finns throughout the Upper Midwest.

Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians are more scattered and many of them reside in Democratic states, but their concern over their eastern neighbor and pride in leaders like Kaja Kallas are strong.

Pennsylvania’s historical connections to Germany are visible and alive even today. The state remains potentially receptive to reminders of its trans-Atlantic origins. Further South, Virginia, both Carolinas, and Georgia are major recipients of foreign investments and international immigration, North Europeans included.

Southern swing states of Georgia and North Carolina carry a strong tradition of resentment toward totalitarian states. MAGA-Republicanism has not managed to erase this mindset, as southerners, for historical reasons, can be receptive to an underdog-story.

The economic, political, and cultural advances of the Baltic region have triggered new interest and pride among Americans with roots in Northern Europe. Alongside it exists a keen awareness of the Russian threat. With smart public diplomacy, these sentiments could be converted to grassroot pressure toward Washington and White House to show more support to the Baltic region.

Apart from Trump’s aggressive fixation on Greenland, the Baltic region has received somewhat friendlier treatment from the current administration than most of Europe. The region’s military preparedness, willingness to pay for its defense, and publicly demonstrated confidence and determination in face of Russian threat has resonated among Americans.

Generations of Americans learned at school that Finland was the only country that paid its World War I debts to the United States. Now among Americans interested in foreign- and security policy, Finland is getting positive response for its high-level military preparedness.

Goodwill is there. Now the challenge is to channel it toward positive pressure campaign toward Washington.

A majority of Americans disagree with Trump’s foreign policy. Most Americans side with Ukraine in its war against Russia and half of Americans want to support Ukraine’s campaign to capture its territory – as long as it takes.

Ukraine is tied to the security situation in the Baltic region. American media has done quite a good job in emphasizing this issue but raising awareness of European and Baltic security remains necessary – especially when the President of the United States has largely detached himself from a war when “we are separated by an ocean.”

Strong, concentrated, and carefully executed public diplomacy offers a way to influence the President and Congress. This often takes more creativity than money.

Rowing Norwegian football fans captivated Americans during last summer’s World Cup. People indifferent to the sport and with limited knowledge of Norway suddenly started rooting for the team. In the era of social media and memes, a simple but clever idea can inspire and create strong impressions.

The field of cultural exchange calls for ways to target not only internationally minded college-educated demographics, but also average Americans with limited attention to global affairs. However, they might know Finland for its metal bands, Germany for its beer, and so forth.

A U.S. tour of Baltic region rock bands, festivals rich in North European food and drink, exchange programs between labor unions, and effective social media campaigns can target people who normally do not follow world politics or form opinions about it.

In the era of unpredictable upheaval in Foggy Bottom, Pentagon, and the White House alike, a simple, appealing and entertaining concept can effectively reach more people than a targeted diplomatic program aimed at people operating at the mercurial mercies of the chief executive.

Americans are susceptible to advertising and appealing narratives, as historian Daniel Boorstin reminded us. The way into American politics goes through hearts as much as minds.