The world order has become structurally volatile. No one knows what new (dis)order will emerge over the next decade – or what it will mean for the European Union. Strategic foresight can help EU decision-makers navigate this uncertainty by exploring plausible futures and identifying strategies that remain viable under different conditions.
Drawing on a 2025 scenario process conducted by the authors with the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI and experts from business, academia and politics, this article presents six possible world orders for 2035. Rather than forecasting the future, these scenarios map the range of geopolitical environments Europe may face, differentiated by the number of power centres and their degree of stability.
Scenario 1: World Order Made in China
China dominates a Sinocentric order as the United States retreats from international leadership. Regional formats and authoritarian alignments, including Russia, Iran and North Korea, support Beijing’s hegemony. Global value creation, innovation and key technologies are concentrated in and around China, which exploits resulting dependencies without offering firm security guarantees.
Scenario 2: America Great Again
China has failed to stabilise its economic and political model, leaving the United States as the leading global power. US hegemony rests on military and financial superiority, while NATO has become irrelevant. Washington reinforces economic and technological dependencies, climate policy loses priority, and access to strategic raw materials serves US interests.
Scenario 3: Two-Men Show
After escalating tensions, China and the United States settle into a fragile “G2” based on deals, power politics and deterrence. The global economy splits into rival technological and economic ecosystems as value chains decouple and inequality grows. Universal rules and multilateral institutions lose influence, while security and climate policy follow bloc logic.
Scenario 4: Five-Body Problem
The United States, China, Russia, India and the EU form five competing power centres. None dominates; stability depends on mutual vigilance, mistrust and shifting coalitions. All five are heavily armed and pursue strategic autonomy. Trade, value chains and innovation are increasingly organised and protected within blocs.
Scenario 5: Authoritarian International
A network of illiberal governments has replaced the liberal order. China, Russia and the United States form its core, joined by numerous states – including populist-led European countries – and seek to undermine remaining liberal democracies. Corruption, clientelism and national isolation shape the economy; innovation serves security, while climate policy focuses on national adaptation and large-scale technical interventions.
Scenario 6: Beyond States
Non-state actors have gained considerable power. States remain, but multinational companies, tech billionaires, oligarchs, cartels, megacities, NGOs and social movements operate through fluid, transactional networks. Security is increasingly privatised, companies and cartels assume state functions, and global trade structures have fragmented.
Common Challenges Across All Futures
Despite their differences, all six scenarios point to one conclusion: the EU cannot rely on a stable international order or external protection. Four priorities will determine whether it remains a geopolitical actor in 2035:
- Effective decision-making: Overcome deadlock through strategic use of minilateral formats based on shared values, while deepening partnerships with (like-minded) third countries.
- Credible deterrence: Strengthen European defence through closer integration of national forces, joint procurement and innovation, and coordinated investment—in close cooperation with NATO.
- Strategic resilience: Prioritise critical industries and technologies, build European ecosystems and make the EU indispensable in selected market and technology niches.
- Social sustainability: Reinforce cohesion through credible narratives that legitimise reforms and offer direction during difficult transitions.
Preparing for Uncertainty
These priorities share a common goal: strengthening Europe’s capacity to act across different futures and respond to unexpected developments. This challenge is not new; but the urgency is. Whether the EU remains geopolitically relevant in 2035 will depend on decisive collective action today. A capable, united and internationally connected Europe cannot be taken for granted – it must be built through the political choices made now.
This article is based on the Bertelsmann Stiftung Study “Global Block Formation? Implications of the New World (Dis)Order for Europe” and the policy brief “Six Scenarios for 2035 and How the EU Can Prepare for Them.” AI-assisted tools were used for language editing and shortening.
Dr. Cora Jungbluth
Senior Expert China and Asia-Pacific
Program Europe’s Future, Bertelsmann Stiftung
Germany
cora.jungbluth@bertelsmann-stiftung.de
Anika Sina Laudien
Project Manager
Program Europe’s Future, Bertelsmann Stiftung
Germany
anika.sina.laudien@bertelsmann-stiftung.de
