Erna Solberg
The Current Leader of the Opposition
Stortinget, The Norwegian parliament
Norway
This August, Hans was all the rage in Norway.
Contrary to what might otherwise have been the case, Hans is not a play by Ibsen or this year’s Nobel Prize laureate Jon Fosse, but a storm that raged across Norway and our Nordic neighbors. Hans led to severe flooding, landslides, and massive damage to infrastructure in large parts of Norway. A major dam was breached in Glomma, Norway’s longest river. Hans may be the costliest natural disaster to hit Norway in modern times. And speaking of Ibsen, five shows at the Peer Gynt-festival had to be cancelled due to the storm. As you might expect, Norwegians do not cancel Ibsen lightly, and especially not due to bad weather.
Hans took us by surprise. Lots of people lost their homes, and many have not yet been able to move back home. Even though most Norwegians are fully aware of the extensive climate change currently taking place across the globe, Hans could be considered a wake-up call. Climate change isn’t something remote or abstract that might hit us sometime in the future. It is happening right here and now, and in many ways, it is happening faster in Norway than other parts of the world. We have no choice but to adapt. Climate adaptation has become a matter of security for us all. In the coming years, several hundred hydroelectric dams in Norway are to be strengthened to withstand the increasingly extreme weather, for instance. A costly, but highly necessary measure to meet an increasingly extreme climate.
Naturally, climate change is causing concern also among the top brass in NATO. Last year, NATO adopted its first new strategic concept since 2010. Much has changed globally and regionally since then. In the 2010 strategy, climate change is briefly mentioned only once. In the 2022 strategy, it is mentioned across the strategy, and emphasized as both a conflict multiplier and a direct security risk: “…Climate change is a defining challenge of our time, with a profound impact on Allied security. It is a crisis and threat multiplier. It can exacerbate conflict, fragility and geopolitical competition.
To fully understand the risks of climate change, we must acknowledge how closely intertwined it is with other security risks. Norway’s national security and intelligence agencies are predicting a much bleaker future in the coming years. Across the globe, great-power rivalry is intensifying, and ongoing war and conflict is amplifying the international refugee crisis and humanitarian suffering. Energy and food supplies are being weaponized by authoritarian powers. To Norway, the potential threat from an increasingly aggressive, totalitarian and expansionist Russian regime, is what shapes our strategic thinking in all domains. Crises in our time are more numerous, more severe, and more complex than before. Many of these crises are connected, and to a greater or lesser extent amplifying one another. Climate change is interlinked with many of them.
Russia is weaponizing the global food supply chain to put pressure on the world to comply with its unjust demands in Ukraine. This, in combination with failing crops due to climate change, poses a direct threat to millions of people. Consequently, we must adapt not only to a changing climate, but also to the dangers of climate change as an amplifier in crisis and conflict across the globe. We need to be prepared, both by ensuring our own supplies and stores, but just as importantly by aiding in climate adaptation internationally. This is both a moral imperative and a national security matter.
Particularly for our NATO allies in the Mediterranean region, climate change is amplifying their security issues, as Europe is facing a migration crisis in the making. Climate change is one of several direct causes of increasing numbers of migrants leaving Northern Africa and the Middle East. To the Nordic and Eastern European NATO allies, Russia remains the dominant threat to our freedom, independence and security. Even so, it is our duty to acknowledge how the Mediterranean NATO allies are bound to look not only north and east when addressing their security concerns, but also south and east to North Africa and the Middle East. In the same way that we expect them to understand our security concerns, we must acknowledge theirs. Climate change remains heavily interlinked with their security concerns, and as of now, more so than ours. The Nordic countries, and Norway in particular, might experience a somewhat similar development in the coming years.
As the Arctic ice pack keeps melting at an ever more alarming speed, the Northern Sea Route is becoming navigable. For good reason, this development has been considered an emerging security issue in Norway for decades. From 2011 to 2022, the total traffic volume on the Northern Sea Route increased more than tenfold in tonnage. Recent geopolitical developments may further accelerate the traffic growth. A weakened and increasingly isolated Russian regime in dire need of foreign currency and technology, may have to make concessions to increasingly assertive Chinese interests in the Arctic. In its Arctic policy published in 2018, China proclaimed itself a “near-Arctic state”, to some controversy on the international stage. Arctic matters are likely not at the top of Beijing’s agenda these days, as the Chinese economy is facing severe problems propelled by an ongoing real estate crisis. Nevertheless, China has demonstrated a clear political ambition in the Arctic region that should not be ignored. This is not necessarily a military issue, but still an issue that will require increased presence, surveillance, and cooperation in the Arctic.
In sum, climate change and security are just as interlinked in the Nordic and Arctic region, as they are in the Mediterranean region. From a Norwegian perspective, Finland’s recent entry into NATO vastly strengthens our own position in facing emerging security challenges regionally. Norway expects Sweden’s entry into NATO shortly, and is adamant that Sweden has fulfilled all reasonable criteria for NATO membership. A unified Nordic-Baltic NATO bloc will greatly strengthen the possibilities for Nordic-Baltic cooperation across the spectrum, including addressing emerging security risks amplified by climate change. I expect we are not yet able to imagine the full extent of possible arenas for cooperation in the coming years.