BSR Policy Briefing 4/2025

At first glance, Vladimir Putin has the time advantage in his war with Ukraine: faster production, deeper manpower sources and pockets, no need for consultation and agreement from allies, and no meddlesome domestic opposition. From this point of view, he would prefer to keep the conflict going. Currently three scenarios are imaginable in the conflict: A Continuation of Fighting; Division of Ukraine either along the lines of the peace in Korea or the division of Germany; or an Israeli option, by which Ukraine uses a temporary peace to rebuild its defensive and offensive military capacity, making itself an ‘indigestible porcupine’.