Germany talks about war and its consequences since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Besides Germany’s political, financial, military, and humanitarian support for Ukraine, investments in the Bundeswehr make the headlines – and are talked about in the Bundestag, in TV shows, and at demonstrations. What the German public thinks and does is a contested issue. Germany’s defence minister keeps repeating that Germany must be ready for war by the end of the decade. This involves the armed forces, businesses and the wider population.
But public opinion is far from united. Not long after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many observers criticised the actions taken by the German government (and more explicitly the German chancellor) to support Ukraine on the battlefield and equip the Bundeswehr as “too little, too late”. At the same time, populist parties in Germany call for immediate peace negotiations, “back to normal” with Russia, less NATO and less EU. In recent elections in Brandenburg, Thuringia, and Saxony, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) made substantial gains. References to the public will, as expressed in opinion polls, protests, election results or personal conversations, are used by policy actors from all sides to back one’s stance. A more critical perspective is needed.
This paper asks how secure urban populations feel, what they are worried about, and how they prepare for crises. To answer these questions, I draw on public opinion data from a recently conducted survey among inhabitants of German cities (Hamburg, Berlin, Munich), Helsinki and Riga. The survey has been funded by the Council of the Baltic Sea States (CBSS) as part of the two-year project “Prepared Together: Stronger Together”. Bringing together researchers from Latvia, Finland, and Germany, the project’s aim is to facilitate the exchange of best practices in the Baltic Sea region and promote better preparedness for a changing security environment.
The survey results indicate that urban populations seek more guidance from public authorities. Even though most people living in Riga, Helsinki, and Germany’s largest cities feel secure, they want to be better informed about what to do if a crisis hits. Compared with the data from Riga and Germany’s cities, inhabitants of Helsinki feel the most secure – be it in their immediate neighbourhood (91%), city (84%), or country (92%). The impact of climate change worries respondents from Helsinki the most; nearly half of respondents see it as a major threat.
When it comes to Germany, three observations stand out. First, urban populations share a pessimistic outlook; 59% expect a major disaster to happen within the next ten years. Respondents from Riga (31%) and Helsinki (39%) answer more cautiously. Second, domestic issues take precedence. Organised crime worries respondents from Hamburg, Berlin, and Munich the most; 56% rate it as a major threat. Despite an increased coverage of military issues in the media, only 33% fear the outbreak of war. In Helsinki, the percentage is even lower (21%). The data from Riga differs; 56% are concerned about a potential military attack.
A study by the Bundeswehr Centre of Military History and Social Sciences (ZMSBw) confirms that the German population is mainly worried about the impact Russia’s war against Ukraine has on their daily lives.[1] According to the ZMSBw survey, 75% of the German population feels threatened by rising prices. Concerns about war in Europe or nuclear escalation are less salient. Third, drawing on data from our CBSS funded survey, the self-declared level of preparedness is relatively high in the German sample. Roughly half of respondents has essential items and supplies at home to get through a crisis: 43% have a battery-powered radio, 60% have food, water, and medicine for a week or longer, and 53% have cash reserves for the same period of time. Yet, half of those surveyed in Germany do not feel ready for a crisis. In Riga, on the other hand, 64% report to have the necessary knowledge and skills to manage a disturbing situation.
Some limitations should be kept in mind. The data presented here is only a snapshot. Public opinion can change any minute. It responds to events, but also to policy decisions and media coverage. Differences within countries warrant closer scrutiny. Internal dividing lines in public opinion matter, for instance related to sociodemographic factors, rural and urban areas, or, more specifically, East and West Germany.
[1] Graf, T. (2024). Was bleibt von der Zeitenwende in den Köpfen? Sicherheits- und verteidigungspolitisches Meinungsbild in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 2023. ZMSBw.
Alexandra M. Friede
Researcher
Helmut Schmidt University
Germany
alexandra.friede@hsu-hh.de
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