Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government coalition, formed by SPD, Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP) failed in November 2024 due to disagreements on economic issues. When Russia started the aggression against Ukraine in February 2022, Scholz stated in his speech that this event was a turning point in the European security situation and for Germany’s foreign and security policy. Eventually, disagreements over financial and military support for Ukraine were the leading reasons behind the fall of the coalition government. The latest Baltic Rim Economies issue discusses, inter alia, the upcoming snap elections scheduled for February 23, Germany’s economy and Germany’s role in the Baltic Sea Region.
Will pro-Russia attitudes leave SPD out of the government?
In her article, Sarah Kirchberger focuses on politics and the future of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the party of current chancellor Olaf Scholz. She notes that the party has long ignored criticism targeted to its Russia policies. Scholz’s delay and ambiguity in supporting Ukraine have been seen as an attempt to reconcile internal differences within the SPD and between the other government parties. According to Kirchberger, it is uncertain whether the SPD will be part of the new government. Anyway, the upcoming snap elections are a welcomed opportunity to change the direction of Germany’s foreign policy.
Sarah Kirchberger: Scholz out: a new hope for ‘Zeitenwende’?
The important role of the CDU/CSU
Tuomas Iso-Markku discusses in his article about the important role of the Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU) parliamentary group in the upcoming elections. The party leads the polls and is a likely candidate to lead the next government. However, the rise of both the far-right and far-left has forced the party to reconsider its profile, and its candidate for chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has deliberately steered the party to the right, especially on immigration issues. Iso-Markku writes that after the possible election victory, the party will likely need to make compromises in government formation, possibly even forming a coalition with its main opponent, the Greens.
Tuomas Iso-Markku: CDU/CSU role in a changing party system
The Rise of the Far-Right and Far-Left
In his article, Arvid Jurjaks focuses on the rise of both the far-right and far-left in Germany. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), known for its radical views particularly on immigration, has secured its position within the German political system. At the same time, it has forced larger, more traditional parties to adjust their profiles to retain right-leaning voters. Meanwhile, on the far-left, Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW party has risen rapidly, particularly due to its critical stance on supporting Ukraine. The growing support and success of these parties in regional elections show that Germany is shifting towards a more fragmented party system, with more parties gaining seats in parliament. According to Jurjaks, the rise of new parties adds uncertainty to the elections, placing Germany in a new and unfamiliar situation.
Arvid Jurjaks: Uncertain snap elections as new parties rise
Germany’s upcoming federal elections are interesting and important for several reasons. The election results will influence the direction of Germany’s economy, foreign and security policies, the situation in Ukraine, and more broadly, Europe’s security situation.
You can read more about these topics in the articles of Baltic Rim Economies 4/2024 publication.
