The newest BSR Policy Briefing 4/2025 – Scenarios for Ukraine: A Theory of Victory and Peace written by Andrés Pastrana, Greg Mills and Juan-Carlos Pinzon discusses the lessons from the conflict, options for peace, and whether there is a theory of victory imaginable for Ukraine.
Strategic Lessons
By May 2025, the war in Ukraine had lasted over three years, with massive casualties on both sides—over 700,000 for Russia and more than 440,000 for Ukraine. Despite Russia’s initial plan for a swift takeover, Ukraine successfully resisted, turning what was meant to be a quick strike into a prolonged war of attrition. Ukraine’s resilience has drawn global support, yet Western aid has been slow and limited, exposing strategic weaknesses and political hesitations.
The war has highlighted the role of economic resilience besides military power and battlefield tactics. Russia’s strategy leans heavily on exploiting Western indecision rather than military superiority. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s narrative of democracy and sovereignty has struggled to resonate globally, especially in the Global South.
Digital warfare, propaganda, and AI have played key roles in shaping perceptions, while international alliances have shifted, with Iran and North Korea backing Russia. Europe, heavily reliant on U.S. involvement, faces the challenge of stepping up its defense role. Ultimately, Ukraine’s survival and its ability to shape the post-war order are seen as central to the future of European security and democracy worldwide.
Operational Lessons
The war in Ukraine has transformed from a conventional conflict into a high-tech battle driven by drones, electronic warfare, and rapid decision-making. Drones have become decisive weapons, accounting for the majority of Russian casualties.
Despite technological advances, war still requires well-trained infantry and effective offensive capabilities, underscoring the need for continuous international support. Ukraine’s 2023 counter-offensive showed the high cost of not fully leveraging tactical warfare, reinforcing the importance of strategic adaptability in prolonged conflict.
A lasting peace in Ukraine must be grounded in the realities of war and strategic adaptability, not idealistic aims. Ukraine’s theory of victory hinges on sustained international support and building a resilient economy and defense.
At the end of the article, the writers present three possible peace scenarios. All options highlight the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s own defense capabilities but also the support of international community.
Read the issue: BSR Policy Briefing 4/2025: Scenarios for Ukraine: A Theory of Victory and Peace
