Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has scattered Russians around the world. A new and vocal opposition has emerged, especially among Russian journalists who do not want to be isolated from events in Russia but instead wants to engage with their fellow citizens who have remained in the country.
One of the prime destinations of travel has been the Baltic States. All three countries share a border with Russia and have significant Russian-speaking populations (a leftover from their former days as part of Soviet Union). Moreover, all three countries have been integrated into the west as members of the EU and NATO. In other words, they have achieved all of the advantages of western freedom, economic integration, and national security that makes them an attractive place for a Russian opposition in exile.
In particular, Russian journalists gravitated to the Baltic States. The Nobel Prize-winning newspaper Novaya Gazeta set up shop in Latvia soon after it was declared a foreign agent by the Russian government and shut down. The independent Russian language newspaper Meduza also established itself in Latvia, while the independent media website mediazona decamped to Vilnius. Finally, the Latvian government granted a broadcasting license to the liberal Russian-language TV station Dozhd (Rain) in the aftermath of Putin’s media crackdown and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
What was perceived largely as a welcome mat, however, has now been unceremoniously removed, when the Latvia’s National Electronic and Mass Media Council closed Dozhd for national security reasons while simultaneously revoking its license and kicking it off cable. As a result, a critical source of independent Russian journalism has been silenced at a time when fact-based news directed to Russians is at a premium. What precipitated this action? And what does portend for the Russian diaspora in the Baltic States and other countries that still want to remain relevant and provide alternative sources of news.
The TV Dozhd affair arose from a series of misunderstandings, miscues and ill-chosen words that quickly escalated into a major scandal. An off-hand comment by a correspondent about helping serviceman and providing equipment and elementary amenities “at the front “was perceived as expressing sympathy to the invading Russian forces in Ukraine. The correspondent was immediately fired. A further mistake occurred when a map on Dozhd displayed Crimea as part of the Russian Federation even though Russia’s annexation of this Ukrainian territory has never been recognized by the international community. Dozhd subsequently was fined 10,000 euros for showing the map.
Dozhd journalists were not immediately asked to leave the country after the revocation of its license, and its listeners can still gain access to the channel through YouTube. But the larger question remains – can the Russian journalism serve as viable source of opposition and potential bridge to a post-Putin world, whenever that might occur.
Russian journalists have fled to other parts of the world – Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Israel – but none of these countries have expressed a burning desire to become the voice of the Russian exile community. Indeed, like Latvia, various national security concerns make it extremely difficult to serve as the hub of Russian opposition abroad. Georgia, for example, is still dealing with 2008 war with Russia that left a bitter frozen conflict with Russia on its doorstep. Several Russian journalists ultimately were denied entry into Georgia. Kazakhstan remains a member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) while Armenia still relies on Russia as its most important ally in its struggle with Azerbaijan. Finally, Israel still has to deal with (and deconflict) with the Russian army propping up the Assad regime in Syria.
So the Russian journalism continues to search for a place of refuge, with a shrinking number of potential takers. There is also the question of how long a diaspora can remain focused and united, especially in the face of potentially years in the proverbial wilderness. Finally, Russian journalists are not the only, or even the primary, aggrieved party in this bloody war. A Ukrainian diaspora has also spread across Europe, and as a result of Russia’s indiscriminate and criminal bombing of civilian infrastructure, many no longer have a home to return to.
The Dozhd saga is still not over. The Netherlands offered the station a TV license in January 2023, and it looks like it will be moving part of its operations to Amsterdam. The Dozhd incident may just be relegated to a historical footnote, but it also serves as a distinct reminder of the perils of exile, even in countries that on the surface appear sympathetic to the Russian opposition.
William E. Pomeranz
Director
Kennan Institute
USA
