As the world grows more volatile, organisations, both private and public, have increasingly recognised the need for foresight, the systematic exploration of the future from their own point of view, to prepare for both the expected and the unexpected. As a result, foresight activities are being adopted and developed across sectors. However, in my professional experience, it often remains unclear what exactly their ultimate purpose should be. It is customary to say that foresight should inform decision making, but how that actually translates into practice and measurable value remains a challenge. When this challenge goes unaddressed, organisations sometimes close down foresight functions because they fail to demonstrate tangible results. There are ways to avoid this disappointing and needless outcome, which deprives organisations of the value foresight can generate.
First, having witnessed these struggles, my emerging understanding is that foresight is not merely another function, like market intelligence, competitive analysis, or risk management. Rather, foresight draws from all these sources and others, combining them to produce a view of the potential futures the organisation could face. In this sense, it acts as a metafunction that synthesises different information streams and uses them to generate forward-looking assessments, or futures intelligence. As a function of a different kind, it should also be treated accordingly in terms of expectations and resourcing.
A second key point is to recognise that if foresight is to inform decision making, it must do so at the point when decisions are being made, not afterwards. Once leadership has already committed to a course of action, even the best foresight-derived insights are unlikely to shift established thinking. In other words, foresight inputs should be integrated during decision making, for example when strategies are being developed. Strategies and plans should emerge from the future environments the organisation expects or might encounter, not merely from current conditions and naïve linear projections.
A third way to extract value from foresight is to use it as a corrective mechanism. Whereas organisations typically take corrective action when financial or operational data signal failure, foresight can deliver forewarnings that trigger proactive measures in the present to avoid potential dangers. This requires leadership teams to meet regularly to review and interpret the organisation’s current view of the future in a structured way, and to determine what it means for operations. Doing so makes the value of foresight tangible, as it leads directly to informed and timely decisions.
A fourth observation about getting value from foresight is that organisations should share the futures intelligence they generate widely. Broad dissemination sparks new insights and encourages colleagues to engage in discussions that enrich the collective futures view with their diverse professional perspectives. If futures information remains confined to a small leadership group, which in some cases may be appropriate, such as in sensitive strategic decisions, the organisation risks losing much of its value. People remain unaware of potential changes and, more importantly, miss opportunities to think about how they could best take advantage of those changes.
Fifth, and perhaps most importantly, to generate lasting value, all foresight activities should be systematic, continuous, and guided by organisational needs and decision-making cycles. In other words, foresight should be tightly integrated into the decision-making system or framework the organisation follows, rather than operating as a separate or ad hoc exercise. To achieve this, the foresight function should have a clear mandate and direct access to those whose decisions it is meant to inform, ensuring that its insights are not diluted or delayed as they move through layers of the organisation. When foresight is embedded in this way, it becomes part of the organisation’s natural rhythm of learning and adaptation, continuously scanning the environment, interpreting change, and feeding actionable intelligence into the strategic process. For such integration to succeed and endure, however, organisations must also be able to evaluate how well their foresight function performs and what value it delivers over time. Before establishing a foresight function or team, the organisation should therefore define clear deliverables and intended impacts. Linking these to measurable KPIs allows for assessment of the value derived from foresight activities. Monitoring those KPIs then enables continuous improvement, ensuring that foresight serves the organisation’s evolving interests and needs.
In a world that seems to grow more uncertain with each passing day, engaging in a systematic study of change and its implications for the organisation is both beneficial and common sense. Foresight, when implemented properly, offers the tools and frameworks to do so.
Max Stucki
Senior Manager, Foresight Process
Futures Platform oy
Helsinki
Finland
