Energy has always played a central role in geopolitics – and will continue to do so in the future. The energy transition is a response to climate change, but the shift from fossil fuels to low-carbon and electrified societies also transforms geopolitical dynamics. The energy transition is reshaping the strategic landscape in such a way that intelligence analysis must adopt a new approach to energy-related issues to provide decision-makers with successful early warnings.
Global investment in clean energy is almost double that in fossil fuels. Natural resources, technological capabilities, and political will to either advance or hinder the change are reflected in states’ geopolitical choices, which are driven by control over regions and resources. Fossil fuel-based geopolitics is now accompanied by the geopolitics of renewable energy.
The ideal of the energy transition is a gradual global phase-out of fossil fuels. In practice, not all states and governments are willing to do this voluntarily. Achieving global consensus on the timeline and order of the phase-out is challenging: which countries should lead the way, and for whom would it be economically or politically most feasible? This ambiguity makes the energy transition a complex geopolitical battleground.
Energy transition on the great powers’ chessboard
China is the clear leader in renewable energy investments. China controls significant parts of the renewable energy value chains: the demand, ownership and refining of many critical raw materials are concentrated there. This gives China a significant competitive advantage and enables it to establish geoeconomic dependencies in various areas.
The United States’ current policy relies on oil and gas, and President Trump opposes the green transition. However, internal power relations in the US may change, which could also alter attitudes toward the energy transition. In any case, the US’ role as a major producer of fossil fuels does not support the decisive phase-out of fossil fuels.
Russia aims to prolong the fossil fuel era as long as possible, even though the long-term sustainability of its oil-revenue-based economic model is questionable. Its governance is built on power structures created by fossil energy. A potential decline in oil revenues poses a significant threat to the regime’s future. However, Russia cannot avoid the impacts of climate change and environmental issues indefinitely.
The European Union invests significantly in clean energy, making it a key actor in the geopolitics of renewable energy. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was a catalyst for changes in the energy policy. The REPowerEU plan, published by the European Commission in 2022, promoted the adoption of renewable energy, diversified energy sources, and improved energy efficiency. However, a complete decoupling from Russian energy is still ongoing and some states inside the EU oppose the development.
New value chains create new dependencies
Unlike fossil energy, renewable energy can be produced to some extent in nearly every country. This allows states to diversify their energy sources and reduce dependence on fossil fuels. However, the adoption of renewable energy requires the use of critical minerals and rare earth elements, whose deposits and processing capacities are geographically concentrated. Thus, the geopolitical dimension of renewable energy is also built on dependencies ‒ though under different drivers than in the fossil era.
As a result, new flows emerge between states in areas such as critical raw materials, hydrogen and clean technology expertise. Some states or regions may become more self-sufficient, but renewable energy value chains also create new dependencies that must be carefully identified. This transformation is reflected in changes in the routes and volume of trade and investment, as well as in potential geopolitical ambitions to control new areas and resources as seen in disputes about Eastern Ukraine or Greenland.
Towards new analytical frameworks
As states recalibrate their energy systems, the distribution of strategic resources, economic dependencies, and political influence will evolve in unpredictable ways. These dynamics demand that strategic intelligence analysis play a central role in guiding national security and foreign policy decisions.
Intelligence services must develop robust analytical frameworks to monitor how states’ capabilities and intentions shift in response to energy-related changes. This includes defining precise indicators for multiple scenarios in which global power relations may be reconfigured. The ability to anticipate such shifts is essential for maintaining strategic stability and ensuring informed policy responses.
The energy transition becomes a basic element of strategic early warning taxonomy. It will shape threat perceptions, alliance structures, and economic resilience. Policymakers must therefore integrate energy foresight into intelligence processes to remain active in a rapidly changing global landscape.
Olli-Matti Mikkola
Senior Scientist, PhD
Natural Resources Institute Finland
Finland
