Markus Hoffmann: Climate change, food security, agriculture and the Baltic Sea

23.4.20258 huhtikuun, 2026
Sprouts in the soil

The role of cultivation and food production in eutrophication of the Baltic Sea has been in focus for decades. In Sweden, the debate about agriculture and the sea started in the early 1980s. In particular, events when large numbers of dead langoustines that had died of lack of oxygen were washed up on the beach in Laholm Bay on the west coast of Sweden triggered a debate about modern agriculture and the impact on the environment in general and on the sea in particular.

A long time has passed since then and it has proved difficult to achieve goals for reduced nutrient emissions. Reducing nutrient leakage from cultivation is about changing the behaviour of hundreds of thousands of farmers in the countries around the Baltic Sea. This is a completely different challenge from similar environmental work in industry or other business that is solved with engineering. For the politicians of the Baltic Sea countries, it is a difficult balancing act between, on the one hand, getting environmental measures made to live up to international commitments and, on the other hand, not creating unfair competitive conditions for their own country’s farmers with increased environmental requirements or increased administrative burden.

Polluter pays principle and the price of food

The OECD’s principle from the 1970s on polluter pays has not had an impact in its original form for cultivation and animal husbandry. The principle was developed for the sources of pollution of the time, with a focus on industries and other point sources. It has not proven as obvious to apply it to diffuse sources of pollution as cultivation. Over the years, economic instruments such as reverse auctions and compulsory nutrient balance calculations on farms have been discussed. Denmark and Sweden have and have had this type of policy instrument in the form of so-called fertilizer accounts (Denmark) and a tax on nitrogen in mineral fertilizers (Sweden). But on the other hand, the existing environmental legislation is a way to apply PPP because the cost of complying with it is paid by the individual farmer.Another aspect is that measures for a more Baltic Sea friendly cultivation are also linked to the price of food. Real environmental measures cost real money and they have to come from somewhere. Since the 1970s, the share of disposable income spent on food has halved, at least in Sweden. Competition in the food market is fierce, the farmer’s share of the food price is small, and this affects the pace of Baltic Sea work.

Increased circularity is important

It is important to increase the pace of making the Baltic Sea community with its food production more circular in terms of nutrients. The large cycle between urban and rural areas needs to be improved where nutrients from food are returned to agriculture without being polluted by other businesses and traffic in cities. On a smaller scale, farms in a rural area can create a local collaboration where farms with and without animals cooperate more than today. Often there is an excess of nutrients on farms with animals and a deficit on farms without animals.

Climate change increases the challenge

Increased frequency of extreme weather is bad for the Baltic Sea. This became clear after the dry summer of 2018 when leftover fertilizer nitrogen from drought-damaged plants was washed into ditches and streams and eventually into the sea. Similarly, heavy rains and floods can bring soil and pollutants from the soil to the sea. Food production is hit hard and early by extreme weather and therefore needs to be adapted to climate change. In Sweden alone, it is estimated that around EUR 5 billion needs to be invested in the water infrastructure in the agricultural landscape to cope with both drought and increased precipitation. A rough upscaling from the assessed Swedish need for measures shows that for the whole of Europe’s agricultural land, the figure will be about 280 billion euros. It is starting to be of the same order of magnitude as the approximately 900 billion euros that will be invested in Europe’s defense. Europe and the countries around the Baltic Sea will be forced to set tough priorities. It will be important that money is invested in measures that, as far as possible, provide cleaner oceans and climate adaptation at the same time. This is also a question of food security in the Baltic Sea region.

Lessons learned

There is now a lot of knowledge about concrete environmental measures to be taken in agriculture, but measures need to be taken on a much larger scale. It is a political issue to invest enough money in measures, because the necessary volume of environmental measures cannot be paid for on farms on their own with the price of food. The development going forward will be a continued race between the pace of environmental action, climate change and the continued population growth around the Baltic Sea.

Markus Hoffmann
Agr. Dr., Sustainability Expert, Federation of Swedish Farmers
Sweden

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