The Ostrovets Nuclear Power Plant: Energy independence on paper – isolation in practice
By Justinas Juozaitis
The Belarusian decision to construct a new nuclear power plant in 2008 sought to diversify the national energy mix, reduce electricity tariffs and stimulate the economy through electricity exports. Instead of achieving its intended objectives, the nuclear programme laid the foundations for a major dispute between Vilnius and Minsk, eventually isolating the Belarusian electricity system, increasing its reliance on Russia, and rising electricity prices for the final consumers. The report examines how the Ostrovets Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) affected Lithuania and Belarus in a broader geopolitical context and presents contemporary economic and political challenges. The report argues that Lithuania perceived Ostrovets NPP as an extension of Russian foreign policy designed for increasing its energy dependence, a threat perception amplified by its geographic proximity, incidents and lack of transparent bilateral information exchange with Belarus. At the same time, the report shows that Belarus has underestimated Lithuanian willingness to defend its national interests and failed to consider the implications of the forthcoming Baltic States’ desynchronisation from the Integrated Power System/Unified Power System (IPS/UPS) on electricity trade. Isolated from the Baltic States and Ukrainian electricity markets, Belarus will have to raise capital from the population and local industry to repay its debt to Russia or eventually risk losing the ownership of Ostrovets NPP. For Lithuania, the situation does not fare better – Vilnius has not succeeded in preventing the emergence of a dangerous infrastructure object close to its borders and will have to make substantial investments in emergency preparedness going forward. Making things worse, Lithuania cannot expect transparent and timely information exchange from Lukashenko’s regime.
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