Russia vis-à-vis Ukraine: On Some Economic Costs.
Authored by Sergey Kulik.
In assessing Moscow’s drivers on the Ukrainian track and prospects for dialogue with Kyiv it would be more considerate to identify some rather sensitive challenges for Russia in terms of economic and financial burdens. They are apparently less scrutinized, though bearing a long time imprint on Russian strategic movements. It could assist to evaluate possible no returns in bilateral relations within a variety of probable scenarios, including gradual defrosting the temperature between Moscow and Kyiv. These challenges stem from already made decisions to at least minimize dependence from Ukraine in a number of economic cooperation areas. The decisions have already resulted in substantial financial and economic costs. This is valid in particular for the defense industrial complex and a number of civil industries. Russia would try its best to shrink supply channels of some strategic commodities. Russian business would stay caught in an unexpected cold shower of the conflict calculating damages and without bright hopes for returning to Ukrainian market. With cutting ties in economic cooperation Moscow with Kyiv offer themselves larger maneuverability for their decisions and moves – but with bleak views about possible warming up relations.
BSR Policy Briefing 2/2018 is written by Dr. Sergey Kulik is a director for international studies, Institute of Contemporary Development, Endowment – a Russian independent think-tank. He leads and participates in projects covering different dimensions of the Russia’ s foreign and foreign economic policies. He focuses on Russia’s relations with the European Union and their global and regional impacts.
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