While Walesa’s sentiments are aspirational, they reflect a poignant truth. In the early 1990s, greater efforts by both the democratic world and emerging democracies to foster democracy in Eastern European regions of the former Soviet Union could have bolstered security in Europe and globally. However, the democratic world seemed more preoccupied with exploiting market opportunities following the USSR’s demise than with fortifying the independence of newly emerged states.
Poland, alongside other Central and Eastern European nations, swiftly opted to join NATO following the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact and the disintegration of the so-called ”socialist camp.” Their accession unfolded from the latter half of the 1990s through the millennium years. This period coincided with the rise of neo-totalitarianism in Belarus and Russia, marked by the ascendancy to power of Lukashenko and subsequently Putin. The deteriorating situation with democracy in the European segment of the former Soviet Union proved instrumental in advancing NATO membership for the former ”socialist” states west of Belarus. This backdrop also facilitated the NATO accession process for the Baltic states, leveraging the looming threat from Russia, as was demonstrated by Belarus under Lukashenko, at their borders. While serving the immediate interests of future NATO members, this approach adversely impacted long-term security dynamics in Europe.
Belarus, particularly under Lukashenko’s regime, was primarily viewed not as a security threat but rather as a perpetrator of gross human rights violations and democratic infringements. This perception persisted until 2022 when Belarus became a springboard for Russia’s full-scale assault on Ukraine. A critical yet overlooked factor precipitating Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was Belarus’s geopolitical significance.
Geopolitical significance of Belarus
Belarus occupies a pivotal position in Europe for several reasons. Its geostrategic importance stems from two adjoining geographical regions: the Smolensk Gate and the Suwalki Corridor. The Smolensk Gate, situated between the Western Dvina and Dnieper rivers, serves as a vital strategic corridor for cross-border trade between East and West, crucial not only for Russia but also for the world’s second-largest economy, China. Historically, the Belarusian Smolensk Gate has been the route through which the Russian Empire repeatedly invaded Europe, a legacy perpetuated when the Russian Federation attacked Ukraine with intentions to seize Kyiv. Consequently, Belarus emerged as a crucial geopolitical terrain with far-reaching implications for European security.
The Suwalki Corridor, another strategically significant area, gained prominence following the collapse of the USSR and the Warsaw Pact. This corridor holds immense importance for Baltic region security as it separates Russian ally Lukashenko’s Belarus from the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. Serving as the sole road and rail link between Central Europe, Poland, and the Baltic countries, any invasion threatening this corridor would isolate the Baltic states from continental Europe. Some experts even dub the Suwalki corridor ”NATO’s Achilles heel.” During periods of heightened tension between Russia and the West, Belarus assumes a pivotal geopolitical role, with its policy orientation influencing the potential escalation or détente in the region.
The anticipated unforeseen war
Russia’s initiation of a bloody conflict in Europe stemmed not only from the Kremlin’s aggressive agenda but also from a series of missteps by the West, which chronically underestimated the gravity of developments in post-Soviet states. The West’s delayed and misjudged responses to unfolding events granted the aggressor the strategic initiative. To safeguard European and international security, addressing the entire network of dictatorships under Putin’s leadership, entrenched in the former USSR territories, is imperative. An accurate and comprehensive analysis of the situation is vital to formulate effective strategies for dealing with the Putin and Lukashenko regimes, especially in light of the evolving hybrid warfare.
The misjudgments made by the West proved costly, especially at the onset of the conflict, where accurate information about the invasion coexisted with a prevailing narrative of Ukraine’s imminent fall to Russian forces. Similar erroneous presumptions were made regarding Belarus, despite the well-known nature of the Lukashenko regime. The reluctance to perceive Lukashenko’s regime as a threat to international security allowed it to become an active participant in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, enabling Putin to exert control over Belarusian territory and escalate military aggression against Ukraine.
Following the initial weeks of warfare, during which Ukraine endured significant sacrifices and urgently required substantial support, the West persisted in diplomatic negotiations with Putin and Lukashenko, urging Ukrainians to engage in dialogue. Ukraine’s resilience thwarted Russia’s designs and challenged the West’s assumptions, highlighting the failure to adapt to the realities of contemporary warfare.
Challenge for NATO
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Kremlin aggressors unequivocally exposed security vulnerabilities in Europe, dispelling any lingering doubts regarding Russia’s expansionist ambitions. Efforts to establish a robust European security framework founded on international law and agreements with Russia proved futile. The failure to address authoritarian regimes on the EU’s borders transformed the issue into a pressing concern for NATO.
Ukraine’s pursuit of security guarantees highlights the crucial role of Belarus within the broader European security framework. Put differently, ensuring the security of Ukraine and Europe as a whole necessitates the renewed free and democratic Belarus.
Securing future NATO membership for both Ukraine and Belarus is imperative to fortify Europe’s borders and uphold regional stability.
Andrei Sannikov
Chairman
European Belarus Foundation
Poland
