On 11-12 July 2023, the NATO Summit took place in Vilnius, Lithuania. Was it just another big gathering of Alliance leaders or a turning point in the Alliance’s history? Let’s try to find the answer.
A year before Vilnius, at NATO’s Madrid Summit, the Allies recognized that Europe was no longer at peace. Russia attacked a sovereign country – Ukraine. The war was being fought on the European soil, in the vicinity of NATO. It was clear that further adaptation of the Alliance was urgently needed to counter the Russian threat – as well as other growing challenges.
It was not by chance that NATO leaders gathered in Lithuania. The Eastern Flank and particularly the Baltic countries are the most exposed region of NATO. Placed between the heavily militarized Kaliningrad region and Belarus they are linked to the rest of the Alliance through a very narrow Suwałki corridor. As a deterrence measure, NATO has deployed the Enhanced Forward Presence in these countries since 2017 alongside with the already existing Baltic Air Policing. Was it enough for the Baltics? Was it enough for the Eastern Flank?
Meanwhile, the military integration of Russia with Belarus has been steadily growing. The public announcement of stationing nuclear weapons in Belarus territory was yet another step of many already undertaken. The arrival of Russian Wagner mercenaries to Belarus – so close to NATO borders was yet another important factor to add.
It was vivid proof of yet another violation by Russia of the NATO-Russia Founding Act. Consequently, the Founding Act could no longer define or in any way restrict the Alliance’s actions aimed to ensure NATO’s security and defense.
Just before the Vilnius Summit, NATO approved new regional defense plans. It was a crucial element boosting NATO’s readiness to defend every inch of Allied territory.
However, these plans would mean little if not resourced properly. Allies need to pull their efforts together and make them fully executable. NATO needs to have assigned forces and capabilities. Allies have to ensure the prepositioning of ammunition and armaments on the Eastern Flank. Allies must make a push for military mobility, making it a true flagman and a real success of NATO-EU cooperation.
The war in Ukraine once again proved the importance of air defense. The Vilnius Summit endorsed a rotational air defense model which was the first step in building up NATO’s Air Defense Shield. Allies understood that they have to invest in the much-needed air defense systems – and in deep precision strike capabilities, too.
All these efforts required appropriate financing. Allies welcomed the renewed Defense Investment Pledge (DIP) with 2% of GDP for defense as a new minimum. It went down in history as the V-DIP (Vilnius – DIP).
NATO leaders underlined the need to invest even more to ensure 360-degree security. They discussed new incentives to boost defense industries. Allied support for Ukraine cannot be late or insufficient. Allies’ own stocks cannot stay depleted, and gaps in their own defenses unfilled. It remains a big task even now, one year later.
The Vilnius NATO Summit welcomed Finland to its first summit. A day before the start of the Summit, a long-awaited meeting between Türkiye and Sweden took place. Türkiye assured it has no more objection to Sweden’s membership in the Alliance though it took another few months to complete the necessary ratification procedure. At the time of writing this article, NATO has 32 members. The Baltic Sea is secure as never before.
A big step forward was taken towards Ukraine on its path to join the transatlantic family. Establishing the NATO-Ukraine Council (NUC) and removing the Membership Action Plan (MAP) requirement were concrete deliverables of Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic integration. The first NUC meeting at the level of Heads of State/Government took place on July 12, immediately after the NATO Summit. From then on, Ukraine has been sitting at the table with the Allies as an equal and very valuable partner.
To bridge the gap towards full NATO membership, the G7 countries offered to sign security assurances for Ukraine. The G7 initiative was joined by many Allies and is in the process of concluding bilateral agreements.
Last but not least, the Vilnius Summit welcomed four NATO partners from the Indo-Pacific region. Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea had the opportunity to exchange views with the Allies on global challenges. The Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific areas are both on the geopolitical frontlines. Their security is closely intertwined. China’s increasing assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region and North Korea’s nuclear saber-rattling are challenging the rules-based international order. The united response across the globe would be much stronger.
To conclude, the Vilnius NATO Summit was a great success for the Alliance and especially for its Eastern Flank. Concrete steps were taken to strengthen deterrence and defense. Allies once again affirmed their unity. These are the strongest messages to all adversaries. NATO will defend every inch of Allied territory.
All for one and one for all!
Asta Skaisgirytė
Chief Adviser on Foreign Policy to the President of Lithuania
Lithuania
